The contrarian word on Day 3 at Goodwood....

Last Updated: 01.08.2018

Wednesday, 1st August 2018

The contrarian word on Day 3 at Goodwood….

It wasn’t our day yesterday....

In the opener Silver Line got agitated and sweated-up in the preliminaries, then raced too keenly and then topped it off by losing a shoe mid-race. No amount of form book study can help you out on such occasions....

In the 5f sprint handicap El Astronaute found just one too good on the day. Tough to take – but that’s handicap racing....

  • Go for Completion....

As I say, nothing went right for us. But it all went rather swimmingly for William Haggas....

He won the opener with market-leader Alfarris and then they won the Fillies handicap that closed the card with the similarly well-backed Move Swiftly....

And I think he can get another one at 1.50 tomorrow – in the Matchbook Best Value Exchange Handicap....

His COMPLETION can be backed at a general 10s – but as big as 14s with William Hill – this morning and a double-figure price is fair-enough about a horse that Haggas has wanted to try at 10f since his first run of the season at Redcar....

He won that day but in between times he’s raced twice more over the mile trip and in top big-field handicaps....

Last time, at Royal Ascot in the Britannia, he flopped. No question. But I wouldn’t read a whole heap into that. It can happen....

The time before is much more instructive. In the Silver Bowl at Haydock off 92, he was 2nd to Crack On Crack On – beaten just 1.25 lengths and conceding 6lb in weight....

That one flopped in the Britannia too – having been backed into favouritism. But on Saturday he came good at Sandown in another decent mile handicap event. And he was chased home by Ulshaw Bridge – another to come out of that Silver Bowl renewal....

Crack On Crack On is now rated 98 and can probably rate higher still. Completion is on 96 and he’s not out of it on that mark by any means....

Prior to Ascot he was very progressive, he’s had six weeks to get over that performance and he is a nice price to find the necessary improvement at this longer trip.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Matchbook Best Value Exchange Handicap (1.50 @ Goodwood).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – COMPLETION (14s @ William Hill & 10s generally)

Get the latest odds here >>

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for today.

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing....

I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the action of Day 4 at Glorious Goodwood....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd