The contrarian word on the Arc De Triomphe....

Last Updated: 06.10.2018

Saturday, 6th October 2018

The contrarian word on the Arc De Triomphe….

I’ll  be backing CAPRI at an each-way price of 20s for tomorrow’s Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp (3.05)....

Regular readers will know that I cannot and will not back a horse at skinny odds. No matter how talented it might be....

No horse is that good it can’t be beaten. No horse is that good I want it carrying my money at a short price....

My job is to identify the horse that can out-run a juicy price. And tomorrow, Capri is that horse for me....

  • The forgotten contender....

On the face of it, he’s Aidan O’Brien’s second-stringer with Ryan Moore opting to ride Kew Gardens.

But Moore can’t ride them all and I don’t think Capri is just showing up to make up the numbers....

He’s a horse that has kind of dropped off the radar since winning a G1 Irish Derby and the G1 St Leger at Doncaster last year....

He ran in the Arc last year and he finished well-down the field and well-beaten. But you can draw a line through that. The horse wasn’t going a yard from the word go. Something was amiss....

He bounced back at Naas winning aa G3 on seasonal debut in April and the expectation was that he’d be a standing dish in all the top middle-distance races this term....

But it didn’t happen. He suffered a set-back – a shoulder injury....

Connections have had to be patient with him. But the Arc has been the intended target for a while. I suspect since his flop last year....

He’s only been seen once since that early-season win at Nass – showing up the Arc trial at Longchamp in September. He got beaten well-enough that day – but there’s no way he’d have been pitch-perfect. His trainer said as much prior to the run....

He’ll improve massively for that outing. His whole prep has been designed to have him spot-on for tomorrow....

There’s an element of the Aidan O’Brien factor in this bet. If he horse weren’t pleasing O’Brien, I don’t think he would be here. He must be showing the right signs at home. And if that’s the case then the 25s it too big – because he’ll be close to spot-on....

This is dual-G1 winner, who won’t mind a bit of cut, runs out of an inside stall and has been considered a potential Arc candidate by his shrewd connections for quite some time....

I think he’s worth an each-way shot at the 20s....

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Arc De Triomphe (3.05 @ Longchamp).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – CAPRI each-way (20s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for today.

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow....

I’ll be back in your inbox next week....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd