The contrarian word on the weekend action....

Last Updated: 13.10.2018

Saturday, 13th October 2018

The contrarian word on the Irish Cesarewitch….

Willie Mullins has won two of the last three renewals of the Irish Cesarewitch – this year’s edition of which will be run at 4.25 tomorrow afternoon at Navan....

The other dominant force has been Aidan O’Brien. His last dozen runners in the race produced two wins and a couple places....

Mullins take the shotgun approach this time around, saddling a septet of runners tomorrow – a tactic which almost guarantees he’s going to have something involved at the business end of the race....

We’ll get to that for a moment. For now I want focus on O’Brien. Like a sniper, O’Brien is relying on the accuracy of a single shot. He saddles just CLIFFS OF DOONEEN tomorrow and I want to be on the 3yo.

Only Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook are up with prices right now. But the general 12s with those firm is acceptable. And if better can be got later in the day, then better again.... 

He’s the most unexposed runner going to post tomorrow afternoon. He’s only raced three times to date but has done absolutely nothing wrong to this point...,

He won his first two races in midsummer over 14f and 2-miles. The he was sent to Leopardstown for his handicap debut off a mark  of 102....

On the face of it, he was a little disappointing – finishing 7th of the 16 and beaten 7-lengths. Maybe that assignment came too soon. But I would make the case that the 1m5f trip was on the short side for this horse and the he’ll be better again for the step back up to 2m tomorrow....

I think there’s plenty more to come from this horse and tomorrow offers a great stage for him to make the case that h’s going to turn into a stayer to be reckoned with....

I want to be two-against-the-field in this one and it is to serial winner Willie Mullins that I turn to for my second selection....

Picking which of his is ‘expected’ is a job for a clairvoyant or an insider at the yard. I am neither and I know neither....

That said, I don’t think 7lb claimer Ben Coen has been booked for MAKITORIX because the 5yo is in absolute desperate need of having weight taken off his back. He’s only rated 86, he’s only raced in a single handicap to date and there should be plenty more to come yet from a useful hurdler stepping back up to a 2m trip....

He served notice that he might be ready to win something on his handicap debut at the Curragh. He ran a good race there off 85 and only got beat a half-length. And that was over a 12f trip which I am sure will prove inadequate and under a big weight....

The 7lb claimer will give him massive claims if he stays the trip well-enough and the 16s about him is a fair-enough price in my book.

Only Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook are up with prices right now – and you might get better odds later. If you can, better still....

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Irish Cesarewitch (4.25 @ Navan).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – CLIFFS OF DOONEEN (12s Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook) & MAKITORIX (16s Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook)

Get the latest odds here >>

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now.

I’ll be back in your inbox next week....

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing this weekend....

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd