The contrarian perspective this weekend....

Last Updated: 25.01.2019

Friday, 25th January 2019

The contrarian perspective this weekend….

All stats and all trends are there to be over-turned....

Alan King might have had just a single winner from his last 60-odd Saturday runners, but sooner or later he is going to put that form-trend to bed....

But at a best-price of 5/2 in the ante-post market, I wouldn’t want to be betting that it is Dingo Dollar who does the tucking-in in tomorrow’s Sky Bet Handicap Chase (3.15) at Doncaster....

I’m not saying the 7yo – last seen finishing 3rd in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury – cannot win or will not win. We never say that. In racing, just about anything is possible....

But what I do say is that I wouldn’t want to be taking the short price about it happening....

  • Two-against-the-field....

Only 11-runners go to post for tomorrow’s edition of the race....

But, the market shape is such that I m happy to go to war with two selections available at the right kind of prices....

First-up, Charlie Longsdon’s WILLIE BOY at 12s with Ladbrokes & Coral and 11s generally....

He made the switch form Venetia Williams to Longsdon at the start of the season after a wind-operation. It took him three goes to get off the mark for his new yard – but he did it in style. He was very good value for an 11-length win at Wetherby on Boxing Day. And a 9lb rise in the weights does not seem unfair on that evidence. He’s improved....

His jumping has been a problem in the past. But it was not an issue at Wetherby where first-time cheek-pieces (retained tomorrow) appeared to help....

Tomorrow the horse steps-up to 3-miles for the first time. On the Wetherby evidence, the extra yardage will suit. And it could very well improve the horse again. Things will unfold that bit slower, and that will help his jumping....

Good ground will suit. So too the nature of the track. I expect a big run....

The other one I want to be with is Donald McCain’s FEDERICI at this morning’s general 14s....

He was 5th in last season’s renewal, he gets to go off a pound lower and in his one and only assignment to date this term – in the Becher Chase at Aintree – he produced a decent performance to finish 5th from 4lbs out of the handicap.

That’s a run he can come on for tomorrow. He’s been kept fresher for this race than he was last year and he’s right at the bottom of the weights – carrying 10-3. That no bad thing in a race that tends to go to a horse carrying less than 11-00....

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Sky Bet Handicap Chase (3.15 @ Doncaster).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – WILLIE BOY (12s @ Ladbrokes & Coral, 11s generally) & FEDERICI (14s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now.

I’ll be back a little later today with ATC Extra....

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd