Friday, 15th February 2019
David Pipe’s VIEUX LION ROUGE won the 2017 edition of the Grand National Trial at Haydock off a mark of 146....
He runs off the same mark tomorrow afternoon under Tom Scudamore and he can reward backers at the general 14s by winning the race again....
He’s a little older and a little more experienced over fences than your average Grand National Trial winner. But I’m not concerned about that. Stats are a guide – not a gospel....
When the price suits, I am happy to bet against trends – especially when the failure to tick specific statistical boxes is marginal. As it is in this case....
The 10yo was given a wind-op over the summer and returned to action – and form – with a cracking performance in the Becher Chase up at Aintree....
He was 2nd that day behind Walk In The Mill in a first-time tongue-tie off a mark of 146 – making plenty of ground up from the back....
He was probably entitled to need that off a 238-day break and gave every impression of a horse that had been rejuvenated and was ready to win off his current perch....
It didn’t work out at Chepstow next-time-out in the Welsh Grand National where he was pulled-up before 3 from home....
He did himself no favours that afternoon by going off at a blistering pace he was never going to be able to maintain – fitted with blinkers in addition to the tongue-tie he’d worn at Aintree....
Connections have learnt a little something from that experience. The blinkers are left off this time and the sheepskin cheekpieces are back in place....
He is weighted to go well at a track we know he likes. I reckon there’s a bit of value in the price....
I want to be two-against-the-field for this one – my default approach to these big field handicaps....
And my second selection is Ian Williams’s RED INFANTRY at the 20s with Betfair & Paddy Power and the general 14s....
You might recall that we backed the improving course and distance winner in the Peter Marsh Chase back at Haydock last month....
He didn’t run a bad race that day – finishing 5th of 11 and beaten 6-lengths by the winner, Wakanda....
Backing any loser is disappointing. But there were mitigating factors and positive to take away from the performance....
The trip that day was probably on the short side for the horse and it was noticeable that the 9yo was staying on in the closing stages. Given more track, he would have been closer....
The extra distance tomorrow will play to his strengths. And I also think he’ll handle the drying ground plenty better than a good few of his opponents....
The other thing that catches the eye is the addition of first-time-blinkers to the set-up. There are no guarantees with any type of first-time-headgear but this does not look like a move rooted in desperation....
The horse isn’t running like a drain and Williams appears to me to be looking for something that will eek out a bit extra....
Tom O’Brien is another ticked box. He partnered the horse when he won at the track in November. He was on again for the Peter Marsh. And he’s on again tomorrow....
I like to see these consistencies. They smack of a team sticking with what works and tweaking other bits to try and bring the desired outcome. Same track, up in trip, better ground, new headgear, same jockey....
This horse needs to find a bit more off a mark of 142. But he’s an improving type and maybe tomorrow’s set-up will be the key to finding what is needed. He’s a nice-enough price....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Grand National Trial (3.35 @ Haydock).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back in your inbox a little later today with ATC Extra....
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
