Friday, 22nd February 2019
DIDERO VALLIS is a young chaser open to plenty of improvement and the 14s with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (12s generally) is a nice price about him for tomorrow’s 888Sport Handicap Chase (3.35) at Kempton....
The Venetia-Williams-trained 6yo (once with Willie Mullins) has only had three goes over fences. But inexperience has not been a bar in this race with several winners of similar – or not much more – experience going in over recent years. Neil Mulholland’s Pilgrim’s Bay in 2017 being the most recent example of horses that have made big strides forward in this race....
Didero Vallis is certainly going the right way. He’s swiftly left his hurdling form behind, winning his last two over the bigger obstacles and looking quite leniently-rated to my eyes on a mark of 136.
You can look at his debut-effort at Newcastle and raise a question about whether he will stay the 3-mile trip tomorrow. That would be fair. He got a real beating that day....
But the yard hadn’t been in the best of form in the run-up to that race and it’s a chasing-debut performance that I can write off....
There are, of course, no guarantees. 3-miles might be a little too far. The price factors that doubt in....
But right now, I’m prepared to give the horse the benefit of the doubt, to trust in a trainer who knows a staying chaser when she comes across one and to take the view that the extra yardage is just as likely to improve the horse as it is to stop him in his tracks....
I also think he’ll be better for tomorrow’s good ground. His stand-out effort over hurdles was produced in just such underfoot conditions. And as a relatively small chasing specimen, he should find his fencing comes easier and better on a sounder surface....
He’s up against good opposition, for sure. But that’s always going to be the case in these kinds of races. There are no open goals in handicap racing. There are no tap-ins....
My job – self-imposed – is to identify a horse that can out-run the market’s assessment. And for my money, Didero Vallis is that horse in tomorrow’s contest....
If you were asked to paint a word-picture of a typical Eider Handicap Chase (2.40) at Newcastle in February and words like ‘gruelling’ ‘slog’ ‘stamina-sapping’ and ‘testing’ automatically spring to mind....
And trainers targeting horses at this race would have done so anticipating conditions that reflect those descriptions....
But we’ve had a strange few months of weather. It’s been much drier than would ordinarily be the case. And they go on what looks like being good to soft ground at Newcastle tomorrow. And its drying out all the time with no rain forecast between now and the tapes going up....
It isn’t going to be the typical slog through mud and rain with horses barely able to stand up as they pass the post....
Its going to be a different kind of renewal. One that suits a different type of horse from the typical Eider winner....
Two-time Scottish Grand National winner Vicente was up at 14s on Monday. That soon disappeared and with the ground very much in his favour, Paul Nicholls’s charge is up as the 9/2 jolly this afternoon....
He runs for the second-time in succession without a hood. Will he be fully wound-up at this stage of the season given that another crack at the Scottish Grand National is probably his primary target?
Who knows? The ground will help and he’s back on a winning mark. But the price has gone and he must be opposed....
The one I’ll be taking him and the rest on with the Christian-Williams-trained POTTERS CORNER at a best-price 14s with Ladbrokes & 888sport (12s generally)....
He’s one of only a few runners in the race who will be genuinely suited to the drying ground. He’s a horse that is open to improvement on a better surface. And he can move on from his current mark of 132....
He needs to put in a clear round of jumping. He fell at Wincanton last time out. But James Bowen – who won on him at the same track the time before that – is back in the saddle. That will help....
The step-up in trip is an unknown. The 9yo has been staying on strong and showing plenty of grit at the back end of 3-miles. And the steadier pace over 4-miles – in combination with better ground – might just aid him at his fences....
If he can put a round together under Bowen, he is certainly weighted to go well. Unlike many of the others, he won’t be trying to do it on ground that is less than ideal. I think he’s a player and a bet at the price....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the 888Sport Handicap Chase (3.35 @ Kempton).
In the Eider Handicap Chase (2.40 @ Newcastle).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
No ATC Extra this weekend. I’ll be back in your inbox next week.
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
Some big news from my colleague, Oliver Upstone...
Oliver is all set to launch a brand new football betting service. This is a big deal. He tells me the service will be going after big prices and outsiders, so it sounds right up our street.
It all kicks off very soon indeed. This is a project that’s been in development since last summer. And it’s ready to go live any day now…
To be the first to get all the details, simply click on the link below to register your interest. That will put you on the Priority Waiting List, and you’ll get the full info by email later this week...
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