Friday, 1st March 2019
With the Cheltenham Festival looming large now, the racing drops into a lower gear and there isn’t a whole heap for us to shoot at....
But there is a very good target tomorrow afternoon in the shape of the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury – where they get underway at 2.40....
And there’s very good bet to be had in the shape of Emma Lavelle’s JAVERT at this morning’s general 14s....
10-year old winners of this race are not the norm (Thomas Crapper busted the trend toward lower horses wide open last year) but Javert is no ordinary 10-year old. He’s had a lot of time off and has only raced 8 times over fences. As 10y chasers go, he’s fresher than most....
He hadn’t been seen for 869 days when he won at Uttoxeter back in September. That was some training performance from Lavelle and the win served to illustrate that, despite his problems, Javert remained a prospect with real potential....
Subsequent to that he ran a cracker behind Frodon at Aintree in the G2 Old Roan Handicap Chase. He was only beaten 1.25 lengths (albeit in receipt of 6lbs) but when you consider that Frodon (rated 158 that day) went on to win a G3 and a G2 and is now rated 169, Javert clearly has potential to go on again from 149.
Javert wasn’t at all disgraced on his third run of the season in the G3 BetVictor Gold Cup handicap Chase at Cheltenham in November where he was 6th of 18 runners....
At one point he did look like he was going to take a hand in the finish but didn’t quite see it out on a track that might not have played to his strengths....
He likes a flat track and at Newbury tomorrow he will get what he wants along with a trip that suits and ground that will be fine for him....
He’s from 8 over fences, he’s going the right way and I believe him to be still nicely-weighted on his current mark....
He’s had 105 days off since he was last seen, but I am not concerned about that. He goes well fresh and Emma Lavelle has already proven – in spades – that she knows how to get him ready to produce a tune....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Greatwood Gold Cup (2.40 @ Newbury).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
No ATC Extra today....
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
