Friday, 8th March 2019
Dr Richard Newland is a renowned improver of horses he takes in from other yards....
He’s already done well with STORM RISING – bought for just £20k out of Denis Hogan’s yard last October – and he can build on what he’s achieved so far with the horse in tomorrow’s Imperial Cup at Sandown (2.25)....
Newland produced the horse to win on debut for the yard at Cheltenham in October and then again at Wetherby a week later....
Next time, having risen a stone in the rankings for those two successes, the 6yo finished down the field in the classier Greatwood Hurdle back at Cheltenham in mid-November....
Some commentators took the view that the horse had been found-out at the new mark. The official handicapper seemed to take that view too – dropping the horse from 137 to 135....
I’m not so sure. It isn’t always the weight that stops a horse. Other things can go wrong. Other things can have an effect. And I’m not one for concluding a horse can’t handle a specific mark on the back of a single disappointment....
We haven’t seen the horse since and he returns off a 111-day break for tomorrow’s assignment – priced up this morning at 16s with William Hill & Coral and 14s generally. I think there’s a little value in those quotes....
I’m conscious that the horse will have to do it off a break tomorrow – something which is factored into the price....
But I’m also conscious of the fact that Newland is a smart operator when it comes to targeting big races – and he’s got form in this one....
He doesn’t go overboard with entries year-on-year. But the last 5 he’s made since 2009 produced a win and a place – and both came at big prices. He can get one ready for this....
Of course, the horse still holds an entry in the County Hurdle at the Festival. And you might take the view that this race is being used as a mere pipe-opener for that....
That’s a fair argument. But at number 60 on the list for the County – on a mark of 135 – it is touch and go whether the Newland horse will even go to post next Friday at Cheltenham....
I think it’s just as likely that tomorrow is the big target for the horse. And that he’ll be primed to run a big one....
Newland strike me as a man who squeezes maximum value from everything he does with his small yard. And if he can win with Storm Rising tomorrow – and get into the County too – he’ll have serious ambitions to win again next week and land the Matchbook bonus of £100k....
We can’t know how it will all pan out. The bottom line is this: I’m taking the view that the horse is primed for a big run tomorrow. And, in that context, the price is attractive enough....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Imperial Cup (2.25 @ Sandown).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
No ATC Extra this afternoon....
I’ll be back on Monday morning with an ahead-of-the-meeting outline of what you can expect from me next week at the Cheltenham Festival....
Then, on Monday afternoon, I’ll send you my idea of the value on Day 1 of the Festival meeting....
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing this weekend....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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