The contrarian perspective this weekend....

Last Updated: 15.03.2019

Friday, 15th March 2019

The contrarian perspective this weekend….

The Cheltenham Festival may be over with later today – but the racing doesn’t stop. It seldom does....

Tomorrow the action moves North to Uttoxeter and we’ve got a big field going to post for this season’s renewal of the Midlands Grand National (3.35)....

Twenty-two horses will slog it out on soft ground over the 4m2f trip and 24 fences....

It is never easy to call the winner of these competitive big-field handicaps. But there is always betting value to be targeted in the market....

  • Two-against-the-field....

Neil King’s MILANSBAR was 2nd in this back in 2016 off a mark of 145....

He was 2nd again last year off a mark of 142....

He must have a cracking chance of going one better this year off a mark of 137 and rates an attractive betting proposition at the 16s with William Hill and the general 14s....

Of course, he’s slipped down to his current mark because he’s had a run of below-par performances....

Three appearances this term have resulted in three defeats and a gradual easing in the weights....

But last time at Newbury there were encouraging signs of life and, back a track he goes well at, I expect him to improve again....

Bryony Frost has a cracking record on the horse. They won last season’s Classic Chase at Warwick together and had a good spin in the Grand National to finish 5th. She’s back in the plate tomorrow and that’s as good a sign as any that the 12yo is on manoeuvres. Frost will certainly be full of confidence after events at Cheltenham yesterday afternoon....

The other one I want to be with at the prices is Henry Daly’s BACK TO THE THATCH at the general 11s....

Conditions have come right for him. He was fancied for the Eider up at Newcastle but didn’t run on account of the ground not being soft enough. That won’t be a problem tomorrow and I suspect he is very well treated on a mark of 133....

He’s 7lb better off with Chef D’Oeuvre who beat him just a couple of lengths in the Last Fling at Haydock last time. Richard Johnson partners again. When combining, horse and rider have form figures that read: 61221F2. They generally get competitive and I expect another big run tomorrow at a nice price....

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Midlands Grand National (3.35 @ Uttoxeter).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – MILANSBAR (16s @ William Hill & 14s generally) & BACK TO THE THATCH (11s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now.

No ATC Extra this weekend....

I’ll be back next week....

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing this weekend....

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd