Friday, 29th March 2019
A maximum field of 22 goes to post for tomorrow’s £100,000 renewal of the Lincoln at Doncaster....
Charlie Appleby’s Auxerre has been all the rage in the run-up to the race....
So much so he’s no bigger than 7/2 in the betting....
That’s well short for a big-field competitive race of this nature....
Of course, he could be anything. But right now, he’s a very lightly-raced horse whose had just two goes on turf and just four goes overall....
The hurly-burly of tomorrow’s contest will be unlike anything he’s experienced before. And whilst he might take to it like a duck to water, it could also make him vulnerable....
It boils down to a price thing for me. I could never take 7/2 about a horse in 20+ runner handicap. And, for me, the horse demands to be taken on....
CHIEFOFCHIEFS can backed this morning at a general 16s and I’ll be taking that....
He’s 6-years-old and that’s older than most winners of the races, but that’s the thing with trends – they are not set in concrete and must be applied on a case-by-case basis....
Charlie Fellowes’s horse has had his problems and has taken some lengthy breaks from his racing. The upshot is that he’s still only had 13 goes on the turf and is a fresher and less exposed horse than many his age....
Over the winter he showed up solidly enough in Listed and Group races on the AW – whilst being well up against it at the weights....
He’s a fair-sized unit and coming down the hill at Lingfield is not something that would be ideal for him. So, he did well to do what he did – producing performances sound-enough for the handicapper to raise him to 100 in the ratings....
That means he now gets to have a proper crack at the big handicaps this season....
And those are exactly the kind of races that will give him what his trainer reckons he has been crying out for – a fast pace and plenty of cover that will set-up his late surge....
I reckon a fast-run mile will play to his strengths and he can run a big race tomorrow. He starts in stall 8 which is a plus – because Harry Bentley shouldn’t have any problems dropping him into the pack and getting cover from there....
Of course, you need a bit of luck. And he will need the gaps to appear at the right time. But the 16s is a nice price. He can be a player tomorrow....
I’m not adverse to taking a flier at a price and I’m going to take one tomorrow on Mark Johnston’s AQUARIUM at the general 33s....
There’s no doubt this durable horse has talent and is well-capable of landing a decent pot if or when he puts it all together....
But he’s in the bad habit of dwelling at the start and that puts him up against it. He doesn’t do it all the time, but when he does it doesn’t help....
He did it last-time out at Wolverhampton in the trial for tomorrow’s race. But he was drawn wide that day and Franny Norton was at least able to track across to the rail....
What really caught the eye was how much ground Aquarium made up in the late stages of the race – despite a relatively pedestrian early tempo set by Jamie Spencer. The 4yo was absolutely flying at the end and is clearly firing....
On the back of that run, he’s interesting up the straight mile at Doncaster tomorrow. He’s drawn in berth 22 and however he comes out of the stall, you’d suspect Norton will be looking to get cover and come late....
There are plenty of ifs, buts and maybes attached to this selection but the price is big about a horse with talent boasting a last-time-out performance that suggests he is in prime condition and competitive off his mark....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Lincoln (3.35 @ Doncaster).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back a little later with ATC Extra – we’ll be targeting the Spring Mile....
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing this weekend....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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