Wednesday, 3rd April 2019
Big-field handicaps are the exclusive focus on the Against the Crowd service....
So, just one race for us on Day 1 of the Aintree Festival....
We are targeting the prices in the G3 Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase at 4.40 – a contest over 2-miles and 12 fences with the winner taking home just over £50k....
18 horses go to post on ground described this morning as good to soft....
There’s no doubt whatsoever in my mind that Nicky Henderson will have been targeting this race with THEINVAL all season and I want to be with the 9yo at the general 10s this morning....
The horse comes alive at this meeting. He won a handicap hurdle here back in 2015 and for the last two-years he’s finished 2nd in this race....
He hasn’t had a prior run this time round and arrives a fresh horse. But I’m not concerned about that. He goes well fresh and maybe he stands a better chance without having exerted himself at Cheltenham or elsewhere beforehand....
For sure, he’s done nothing of merit or note in his three seasonal runs to date. But this is his time of year and those three runs have seen him drop 4lbs in the weights. In other words, those runs did the desired job.....
I’m doing my usual trick and going two-against-the-field and my second selection is Nicky Henderson’s other runner, WHATSWRONGWITHYOU at the general 12s....
The 8yo was well-backed in the 24-hours leading up to the off for last month’s Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival – but could only finish 7th of the 19 runners on the day....
That was just his 4th run over fences and maybe he got a little too far back in the field in a race where the pace wasn’t as frenetic as you might expect in a big-field 2-mile chase handicap. The leaders simply didn’t come back....
He’ll come on for the experience and he might also be the type to improve for a flatter track like Aintree. Being a pound lighter in the weights won’t do him any harm either....
He’s certainly got one of the right riders on his back. Nico De Boinville has a 20% winning strike-rate at the track over the last 5-years....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (4.40 @ Aintree).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back tomorrow with my contrarian take on the action on Day 2 at Aintree....
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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