The contrarian perspective on Day 2 at Aintree....

Thursday, 4th April 2019

The contrarian perspective on Day 2 at Aintree….

We get down to the action on Day 2 at Aintree....

If you missed my picks for this afternoon, you can catch up here....

The Topham Handicap Chase is the feature race for our contrarian purposes on Friday afternoon.

The tapes go up at 4.05....

• Two-against-the-field....

Quite a few are out of the handicap including Call It Magic....

He was on my shortlist for this after his run in the Becher Chase where he produced a cracking round over the National fences but didn’t quite seem to get home over the 3m2f trip....

The drop back to 2m5f looks like the right thing. But I don’t think it’s going to be soft enough for him. And I’m giving him the swerve....

The drying ground won’t be a problem for Peter Fahey’s PEREGRINE RUN though and he rates a bet at the general 14s and 12s....

He’s been specifically targeted at this race and he will benefit from the assistance of one of the top riders over the National course – Barry Geraghty....

J P McManus doesn’t have a horse for the race this year and on that becoming evident, Geraghty called Fahey to secure the ride....

He was on the horse for his prep run at Thurles and he’s been over and schooled the horse over some National fences....

This is no spare ride. It’s a combination of long-term planning and happy circumstance. The drying ground is a plus, the horse is fit and fresh and a decent performance at Thurles will have put him spot-on for tomorrow....

The other one I want in this one is Dan Skelton’s BORN SURVIVOR at the general 25s....

Skelton hasn’t been at the training  game for long compared to some of his big rivals at the top table. But one thing he has shown for sure is that he can target one successfully at a big race from a long way out....

He nominated the Topham for Born Survivor as long ago as November when the 8yo won a race in decent style at Wetherby....

He got beaten in the meantime at Cheltenham on New Year’s day but I’m not concerned about that. Skelton wouldn’t have had him anywhere near his peak with tomorrow’s race so far away....

He’ll be right on song tomorrow. Yard and rider, have been in cracking form over the last fortnight and Harry Skelton will be particularly confident in the saddle with a record of 6 wins from 21 at the track this season....

• Earlier in the card....

A maximum field of 22 goes to post at 1.45 for the Merseyrail Handicap Hurdle….

I’m going each-way at a big price in this one with Philip Hobbs’s WAIT FOR ME - available at 25s, 22s and 20s….

I don’t imagine too many mainstream tipsters will be taking the same view – but I like to read between the lines, and I like what I’m reading here….

For a start, Richard Johnson is getting back on the horse for the first time since October. And I think that’s significant because he always seems to get a tune out of this horse at least once in the spring….

The pair went well in the 2016 edition of the County Hurdle at the Festival off 139….

In 2017, they won a nice handicap at Sandown off 135….

Last year, they paced in a good handicap at Haydock off 140….

The horse goes tomorrow off just 134. That’s not far off his lowest ever mark. And this is his time of year….

Hobbs is in rude form. So too Johnson. The last time out effort was disappointing for sure. But the time before that – his first race off the back of a wind-op – Wait For Me showed enough to suggest that he retains enthusiasm for the game….

Better spring ground seems to bring the best out of this horse. So does Johnson. I think the 33s is big off a mark that gives the horse every chance on the best of his spring form.

It’s a nice each-way price in my book….

• The last word….

That’s all from me for now....

I’ll be back tomorrow with my contrarian take on Saturday’s action at Aintree – including the Grand National....

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing at Aintree this week....

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd