Friday, 5th April 2019
Like most punters, the first thing I did this morning was check the weather forecast – not that it can always be relied upon....
Yesterday, the Met Office forecast a largely dry day over Aintree. But they got it wrong – and not just by a bit....
12mm of rain fell onto the track yesterday. The Met office never saw it coming....
I don’t know how this forecasting business works. I don’t know what kind of tools they use. But my suggestion would be to get some of those tools serviced....
As is stands this morning, the going for tomorrow’s Grand National is soft. The next 36-hours is forecast to be largely dry....
At the very least, the going will be on the soft side. And if the Met Office are wrong all over again, it might well be heavy....
I have no weather satellites of my own to call on. I must take the Met Office forecast at face value – despite yesterday’s shortcomings. I am working on the assumption that the ground will be on the soft side but not heavy....
This racing thing is not a perfect science....
Of course, there are seven races on the card at Aintree tomorrow, but for the majority of folk it is all about one race – the Grand National (5.15)....
Forty horses over 30 fences and the extended 4m2f trip. It’s not a total lottery. But it can be chaotic and luck-in-running plays an important – if unquantifiable and totally unpredictable – part in proceedings....
But the race only comes around once a year. We wouldn’t want to sit it out. There are solid contenders at big prices to target and we are happy to swing the bat....
With 11-runners set to head to post, Gordon Elliott saddles more than a quarter of the field. Like or loathe that fact, Elliott has the horses to hand and the rules allow for such domination. The man clearly wants to win the race again. And who can blame him?
Tiger Roll, last season’s winner, goes again. He’s a fabulous little horse that no-one can begrudge and he’s captured the public imagination. He won’t find it easy off 11-5 – high-quality though he is – and in any case the 9/2 about him is ridiculous. I can’t do anything but take him on....
Plenty of tipsters will want to have a few shots at the race but my strategy is to focus on a couple of horses I reckon have strong claims at big each-way prices (there are plenty of Enhanced Place terms deals to be had – and you might want to wait until tomorrow morning for the full range of those)....
Both my picks are Gordon Elliott horses. And both are 8-years-old. I’ve been looking at the most recent renewals of the race in recent days and I can’t help but notice how well that age-group has performed in those races....
Eight 8yos ran last year – two made the first four. The previous year, ten ran and three made the first six. In 2016, three 8yos finished in the first six from a participation of seven. Two finished in the first five from a participation of nine in 2015....
It wasn’t always the case. There was a time that 8yos were thought to be too young. And the record reflected that conclusion.
But the trends are changing. And it makes sense. The prize money for the race has risen, the weights have been more compressed and the race has become that bit more competitive. The younger and less exposed horses – the ones most likely to have a little in hand with the handicapper – are doing better than was the case previously....
I think MONBEG NOTORIOUS is a big each-way price at 66s....
The one-time Thyestes Chase winner was well-fancied for the Irish Grand National last year off a mark of 152 – backed down to 8s – but he didn’t deliver on the day....
Fair enough. But the expectation was there. And though he’s been beaten again since then in another valuable handicap over a trip in excess of 3m4f, Gordon Elliott remains convinced that the longer Grand National trip will bring improvement out of his charge. He’s not a bad judge....
This season hasn’t sparked into flame yet for the horse. He didn’t run until January and got well-beaten in his first two starts – he was eased down in both....
But last time in March at Naas in the Leinster National there were encouraging signs that this horse is coming to hand in timely fashion.....
That was over 3-miles and, whilst he got a bit outpaced, he finished the race off well. It was his seasonal best-effort, he should come on for it and if the longer trip helps him tomorrow then he can run a big race....
Sean Bowen is an interesting booking. He’s got a solid record when riding for Elliott. And he wears the blue cap which has been a lucky charm in big races for the Gigginstown operation....
The other one I like is DOUNIKOS at 33s....
Nobody was ever going to prize Davy Russell off Tiger Roll, but you’d imagine Jack Kennedy would have had the choice on the other Elliott horses and it is surely of some significance that he has chosen this one....
A lot of these Elliott horses will have been campaigned with the British and Irish versions of the Grand National in mind. They probably wouldn’t have been fully tuned-up early doors this season....
After pulling up in the final three runs of last season’s campaign and doing little of note in his first three goes this term, Dounikos romped home in the Grand National trial at Punchestown in February over the extended 3m4f trip – dominating more with every yard and producing a career-best....
He loomed large at the final fence and then drew clear of the field on the run in. He gave the impression that further still could see him to better effect still. He’s a big horse, the type you’d expect to take to the Aintree fences. I think he’s a nice price....
Earlier on the card in the 22-runner Gaskells Handicap Hurdle at 1.45, I am two-against the field with AUX PTITS SOINS and NESTOR PARK – up at 10s & 14s generally....
The former has had three runs for Dan Skelton since moving form the care of Paul Nicholls. He had some problems but a win at Cheltenham in January led to some bullish comments from owner John Hales about having a great chance in the G1 Stayers’ Hurdle at the Festival....
As it was he flopped in the Cleeve and didn’t show-up at Cheltenham in March. But, reading between the lines, they clearly feel they have got the horse back and the G1 aspirations suggest this horse should be up to being competitive in a handicap off a mark of 149.
The latter is another who didn’t quite live up to G1 aspirations in the Challow Hurdle for novices in December. He won a nice race the next time despite losing a shoe and steps up to 3m tomorrow for his handicap debut off a mark of 136. He can leave that mark behind under Nico De Boinville tomorrow....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Grand National (5.15 @ Aintree).
In the Gaskells Handicap Hurdle (1.45 @ Aintree).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back in your inbox next week....
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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