Monday, 21st April 2019
Novices have a good record in the Irish Grand National – the 2019 edition of which will be run at 5.00 this afternoon at Fairyhouse....
At this time of the year on the better spring ground, the lightly-raced raced horses can find improvement at a faster rate than the handicapper can get a grip on them....
The one I like at a price for this evening’s race is the Willie-Mullins-trained BELLOW MOME. I think he’s a big price at the general 25s....
The 8yo has only had two runs this season. In the first of those he was well beaten at Gowran Park in the Thyestes. But he was entitled to need that race given that he was showing up on the back of a 655-day break....
Next time at Naas in the Leinster National Handicap Chase was much more like it. He finished 3rd of the 14 runners – beaten 9.75 lengths over the 3-mile trip....
Those two targets tell you something about what Mullins thinks of the horse. And he is likely capable of winning a big pot like this off a handy mark of 136....
He is lightly-raced, fresher than most at this late stage of the season, going the right way and he is one of today’s 30-runners who will appreciate the better ground....
I think he’s a much bigger price than he should be. He can run a much bigger race than the market anticipates....
In a race of this nature, I want to be two-against-the-field rather than playing for place money with a single selection....
My other pick is Jessie Harrington’s WHISPERINTHEBREEZE at the general 20s. Paddy Kennedy gets the ride because Robbie Power can’t do the weight....
That’s not necessarily a negative. Harrington and Kennedy combined to good effect with Magic Of Light (runner-up in the Grand National at Aintree) and this 9yo can deliver compensation....
The concern about this one is that he is unproven at the trip. But he’s not alone in that and Harrington is a shrewd judge, The fact she had him in the 4-mile at Cheltenham last time out (where he fell when leading) tells you she believes she has a proper stayer on her hands....
The horse has the right running style for an Irish Grand National. He can go a good pace from the front and if he gets into a rhythm and stays out of trouble he’s one of those that could make it difficult for the horse trying to come late....
Conditions are very much in his favour – he will appreciate the better ground – he’s been progressive all season, and he shoulders a nice weight (10-3) this afternoon courtesy of his 139 rating....
This horse has plenty going for him and the 20s is a nice price....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going this afternoon…. In the Irish Grand National (5.00 @ Fairyhouse).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow....
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing this afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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