Friday, 26th April 2019
Last year’s winner Step Back has been all the rage this week for tomorrow’s bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown (3.35)....
The 9yo – who pulled-up last time in the Grand National and who will wear a first-time tongue-tie tomorrow in addition to cheekpieces – has seen midweek money that has cut his odds from 16s to 8s....
The market knows more than trainer and owner it appears. Trainer Mark Bradstock’s wife and assistant, Sara, has this to say....
‘We’re really confused because his owner is a gambler but hasn’t backed him. I haven't told anyone we’re running, so who the hell is backing him?’
Jockey Nico De Boinville says this....
‘I certainly wouldn't be as confident as I was last year because he’s just had a hard race in the National and then he'd had the perfect prep at Fakenham....’
Of course, it wouldn’t be the first time that a horse completely surprises its connections....
But it’s probably not what you want to heart if you’ve lumped on heavy as the prices has collapsed....
Is it some big tipster putting the word out? Is it some big whale of a gambler making his presence – and his knowledge – felt? Is it money from connections? Did someone forget to tell the owner/gambler?
We don’t know. But the gamble does add an extra layer of narrative to the race. And we will see how it pans out....
In any case, the 8s is way too short for my tastes in a valuable and competitive handicap where 20 horses are slated to go to post....
My contrarian preference is to oppose the consensus view, look further down the market and back horses that can outrun the market’s assessment of their chances. I want the value....
It’s a big day for Paul Nicholls tomorrow – who will be crowned champion trainer. Also, for Bryony Frost – returning from injury and said to be as ‘fit as a flea’ – who will be crowned champion conditional....
The Nicholls outfit remains in rude form right up the line and PRESENT MAN can see to it that the pair end the 18/19 jumps season in style....
On the face of it, he looks like the yard’s second-string behind Give Me A Copper. But Present Man is not turning up to make up the numbers. He’s been trained with this race firmly in mind....
You can forget his mid-winter performances on unsuitable soft-ground. This is his time of year....
He’s had 96 days off, but’s that’s not a worry because this horse goes well when fresh. Off breaks of 3-months or more, he’s produced form figures that read: 201111....
Plus, he’s one those that likes going right-handed and running clockwise....
He was third in this race last year off 147 when finishing tired. He’s up 3lbs higher in the handicap this time round – but I’m not concerned about that. The key thing for me is the wind-op he underwent in January. That might just help him find that bit more that’s required....
All in all, I think he’s fair bet at the general 16s....
The other one I want to back is Harry Fry’s JUST A STING at the general 12s....
This one is lightly-raced and he shows-up fresher than most having had a curtailed campaign through the winter – and with a decent surface the key to his chances....
I expect him to progress and he’s one that could turn out to be generously handicapped in hindsight....
Back in December at Kempton, over a 3-mile trip that probably wasn’t ideal, he was beaten just over 3-lengths by the Paul-Nicholls-trained Adrien Du Pont....
That one lines up in this race tomorrow off a mark of 150. The Fry-horse will be racing off just 136. If it all clicks into place, then he is entitled to run a big race off that perch....
In an ideal world in these valuable big-field handicaps, you show up with a horse that is 10lbs or more well-in. That’s the edge you need to land the money....
In tomorrow’s field, Just A Sting stands-out as one of those that could be in that ideal position – and the price is fair enough this morning....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the bet365 Gold Cup (3.35 @ Sandown).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back in your inbox next week....
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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