Friday, 3rd May 2019
A 10-runner field represents a bit of a disappointing turnout for tomorrow’s Spring Lodge Stakes (1.50) at Newmarket....
You’d think a £50k prize pot for a race run over the specialist 9f trip (and let’s face it, we don’t see those races every week) would get a better take-up....
But we can only work with what we have and I did think about leaving the race alone completely with half-the-field trading at a single-figure price in the ante-post betting....
But I do like the progressive EXEC CHEF at the general 12s and 14s – especially with bits of rain forecast over the track today and tomorrow....
Jim Boyle’s 4yo ran an absolute cracker at Doncaster on seasonal debut in the Spring Mile in March – looking the winner at one point under James Doyle but finding Petrus too good at the death and getting beaten a half-length....
That one has since franked the Doncaster form with another decent win at Bath and now sits on a rating of 100....
Exec Chef has been out since too – in the Spring Cup at Newbury where he was fancied to go well – getting backed into 15/2 third-favourite of the 26 that went to post that afternoon....
But it didn’t go according to plan. Under Pat Cosgrave, the horse disappointed – finishing 21st and beaten 30-odd lengths....
That looks like poor form. And it is, taken at face value. But there was a strong draw bias at work in that race on the day and Exec Chef was on the wrong side of the track. Tomorrow’s rider Oisin Murphy is also under the impression that the soft ground went against the horse too....
Take that Newbury run out of the equation and Exec Chef would be an in-form horse coming into tomorrow’s race and would be plenty shorter in the betting. I think there’s some value in the big price....
For sure, tomorrow’s race is a better race than the Spring Mile. And the 4yo will need to improve again. But he’s entitled to so and I think he rates a nice bet at the price....
Handicaps are our primary focus at ATC – but we’re not cranks and the occasional big-field conditions race can also make appeal....
That’s the case tomorrow in the 19-runner 2000 Guineas where it is the Aidan O’Brien horses that dominate the betting once again....
No surprise there. He has won the first British classic of the season nine times in 20-years – and his Ballydoyle yard continues to house many of the best of the breed year-on-year.
It would be no surprise if either one of his pair of representatives tomorrow brought up the magic ten for O’Brien....
But our job is not to reflect what the market is already telling you. Our job is to try to find a horse that the market is overlooking at the price....
And the one I’ll be going with tomorrow is Richard Hannon’s URBAN ICON at a general each-way price of 25s....
He got beaten in the Greenham at Newbury where the ground just blunted his speed – but he gave his rider as good a feel as any horse at Newbury ever has and despite defeat he took his form to a new level....
Reports from trainer and jockey have been bullish since. They feel certain he’ll get a mile and this big and imposing horse – he’s a real physical specimen – is liable to be improving at a huge rate of knots....
The quicker ground will be right up his street tomorrow and he could well be flying under the radar – as his trainer believes....
And one thing the Hannon yard know about is Guineas horses. They won the 2000 Guineas with Night Of Thunder at 40s and have placed with plenty of others at prices. And they’ve won the 1000 Guineas a couple of times too – last year with a 66s shot.
They can get one ready to make great leaps in these Classics and price is no guide. Urban Icon makes a nice each-way bet for my money at the price....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Spring Lodge Stakes (1.50 @ Newmarket).
In the 2000 Guineas (3.35 @ Newmarket).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back a little later today with ATC Extra....
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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