Thursday, 9th May 2019
We’ve the one big race to target on Saturday....
It’s the Victoria Cup at Ascot (4.00) – the first of a quartet of big-field 7f handicaps run up the Ascot straight over the course of the flat season....
A massive field of 27 runners will go to post....
One thing we figured out earlier in the week on ATC is that the horses drawn high have been the percentage play over the last couple of years....
What happened before is no guarantee that it will happen again. But it is something worth bearing in mind....
If it boiled down to a straight choice between two horses – one drawn high and the other drawn low – then the recent record instructs that the high-drawn horse would be the favoured percentage play....
But let’s see where the line-up and the prices take us....
The first thing that stands out for me is that last year’s winner of the race, RIPP ORF, can be backed at double-figures – 12s with bet365 and 10s generally....
It’s not a massive price, for sure. But it is a fair enough quote about a track specialist with his fitness sharpened by a couple of runs in March and April....
Forget the last time out at effort in the Spring Cup at Newbury. He was on the wrong side that day. And, in any case, Ascot is the track where you can expect him to produce his very best....
Four previous runs at the track have produced form figures of 1312 – and when you consider that those races presented fields of 27, 27, 20 and 15 runners, it becomes clear just what a potent threat the 5yo represents at this venue....
The son of Rip Van Winkle clearly thrives on Ascot’s idiosyncratic surface and winning off a mark of 95 is certainly not beyond him....
He was only beaten by one off 97 in the Challenge Cup last October. Granted, Jason Watson took off 3lbs that day – but I maintain my view that 95 is workable....
Watson won’t be aboard tomorrow. He’s with Roger Charlton now, so Hayley Turner takes over....
But that’s not a worry. She was on the horse for his win in last season’s edition of this race and she was on him again when he was 3rd in the International at Ascot in July. As substitutes go, she’s good one....
In a field this size, I want to be two-against-the-field....
Up-and-coming jockey David Egan got a nice ride on Ptarmigan Ridge off Richard Hughes up at Haydock last weekend – horse and rider found just one too good....
This week he gets the job on GEORGE OF HEARTS in our target race and I think the 4yo rates a bet at the general 16s....
Connections are certainly doing everything they can to get things to click into place. The booking of Egan could be a significant twiddle of the dial – but they’ve also gelded him, given him a wind-op and on Saturday he will sport cheekpieces for the first time....
Of course, these could prove to be mess-about moves rather than masterstrokes, but I like the step back to the 7f trip too....
The 7f straight at Ascot delivered a career-best last May and the horse hasn’t had a go at the specialist trip since....
And several additional performances last term at Ascot (albeit over a mile and 6f) where the horse was far from disgraced, suggest that the track is right up his street....
All things take together, I like the signs....
The horse is on the right side of the draw, he’s had a run to blow-off the cobwebs and 90 is a mark he can do business off....
The price is fair enough in my book....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going on Saturday afternoon…. In the Victoria Cup (4.00 @ Ascot on Saturday).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back in your inbox next week.
Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing on Saturday....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
PS. We’re taking an interest in tomorrow afternoon’s Chester Cup Handicap. If you missed the email earlier, click here to find out who I’m backing.
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