Friday, 17th May 2019
It’s not the most appetising of weekends for punters who thrive on playing the valuable big-field handicaps....
The big races scheduled to be run this weekend are restricted to 3yos....
And those kinds of races are problematic....
It’s still early in the season and these are horses with not much more than juvenile form in the book.....
And there’s another bugbear....
In many instances there’s little or no way of establishing (at least none I have managed to work out) how much individual horses might have come on from 2yo to 3yo over the winter....
Handicaps are tough tests for punters at the best of times – when you’re dealing with older horses that are more of a known quantity....
When you’re dealing with a big field of pretty-much unexposed runners, it gets that bit closer to representing a lottery....
I’m happy to leave the 16-runner Betway Handicap at Newmarket for better men than me to solve. A big field of fast-improving 3yos up a 6f straight holds very little appeal....
But I do think there are positions to take in the other big handicap this weekend – the Al Zuburah London Gold Cup over 10f down at Newbury (3.00)....
Certain trainers have a cracking record in this race....
Roger Charlton is 3 winners from his last 4 runners.
Sir Michael Stoute has won it twice and placed 5 times with his last 10 runners....
So little surprise that their representatives this time around are berthed at the top of the market.....
Clearly the horses they send are going to be dangerous. But the layers are already wary of them and it might pay to look at another trainer with a decent record in this contest....
Mark Johnston’s last fifteen runners in the London Gold Cup produced 2 winners and 5 placers – his Communique doing the business last term....
Tomorrow Johnston saddles a pair of participants and the one I like each-way is SKY DEFENDER under P J McDonald at 25s with Betfair & Paddy Power and 18s and 16s generally ....
Jut under a fortnight back this son of Farrh (who won the Lockinge at this meeting 6-years-ago) made his seasonal reappearance at Bath and ran a really encouraging trail for this in a decent time despite a small-field....
He had to tough it out. The runner-up got in front inside the last couple of furlongs but Sky Defender, showing the stamp of a good Mark Johnston horse, wasn’t so easily denied....
He showed grit and battled on to out-stay his rival quite comfortably in the end – really asserting close to home and running through the line....
There’s a suspicion that he might want a bit further in time. But that won’t do his chances any harm at all tomorrow....
There’s a tonne of pace in tomorrow’s field and they could go at it quite hard in the early to mid-stages....
If that’s the case, then I’d be backing the Mark Johnston horse to stay strongly off that pace better than some of his rivals....
And if the pace doesn’t materialize, Sky Defender looks like one of those Johnston horses that can make it, maintain it and prove hard to get the better of late on....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Al Zuburah London Gold Cup (3.00 @ Newbury).
That is my take on where the value lies - but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
No ATC Extra today. I’ll be back in your inbox next week....
Win lose or draw - enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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