Friday, 24th May 2019
In previous years it hasn’t paid to dig too deeply to find the winner of the Amix Silver Bowl at Haydock....
The market tends to have a strong grip on this race as evidenced by the fact that 16 of the last 17 winners came out of the front three in the betting....
I think that stat can be further franked in this season’s renewal tomorrow afternoon (2.50)....
And for me Alan King’s AWEEDRAM is the one to back to do it at 7s and 8s generally....
He’s taken big steps forward on both starts this season – winning at Newmarket and at Ascot. He’s up to 92 in the official rankings now, but I’d be surprised if he’s finished yet....
William Buick was onboard for both those assignments – but not tomorrow. Buick is out of action tomorrow and Richard Kingscote steps up to fill in....
That’s a very interesting feature of the set-up for tomorrow’s race....
Not only does Kingscote ride plenty of winners at Haydock, but principal patron Tom Dascombe has two runners in the race....
Neither is fancied and Dascombe is no doubt fine with his top man defecting to the King horse....
Whatever, it’s none of our business. The principal issue for us is that it strongly suggests the King horse is going to run up to his odds and produce a big race....
At least that’s my take....
Up at York a big field of 19 runners will go at it up the 5f straight in the William Hill Leading On Course Bookmaker Sprint Handicap (3.45)....
It was only 9 days ago that Copper Knight struck for the third time in a big-field handicap over course and distance and he goes for another win tomorrow off a 5lb higher mark....
He’s plenty fancied too along with El Astronaute (another course and distance specialist) and David O’Meara’s Leodis Dream who goes for a 4th win on the bounce having risen a stone up the weights since mid-April....
You could make a confident case for any one of that trio and they will take the beating....
But the role of this column is not to repeat or confirm what the market is telling you, but to try to identify the horse that the market is underestimating at the price....
The one I like is Declan Carrol’s ABEL HANDY at 12s and 14s....
After winning at Musselburgh is taking fashion at the beginning of month he wasn’t unfancied for the race Copper Knight won at the Dante meeting. He was sent off 2nd-favourtie for the 21-runner contest at 13/2....
On the face of it he disappointed – finishing 14th. But he ran from stall 3 and on the day that was not the place to be....
He went into that race in good form with his trainer expecting him to be competitive. It didn’t pan out and he’s twice the price for tomorrow’s race just 9 days later....
I think he’s better than the last time out performance. The Musselburgh performance certainly suggests so. Tomorrow is another day and he’s worth giving another opportunity to at the price....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Amix Silver Bowl (2.50 @ Haydock).
In the William Hill Leading On Course Bookmaker Sprint Handicap (3.45 @ York).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back in your inbox a little later today with ATC Extra....
Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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