Monday, 17th June 2019
Willie Mullins has dominated the Ascot Stakes in recent years – winning 3 of the last 4 renewals....
In tomorrow’s edition – they break from the stalls at 5.00 – Mullins relies on just a single runner, Buildmeupbuttercup....
Last term, Mullins fired 5 bullets at this race – one winning and three hitting 3rd, 4th and 5th....
The paucity of shots fired this term can be taken one of two ways....
One, Mullins lacks the same firepower back home this year....
Or two, he’s supremely confident about the chances of Buildmeupbuttercup....
Ryan Moore – whose record of riding for O’Brien at Royal Ascot since 2016 reads 14/63 compared to the 3/51 record produced when O’Brien uses other jockeys – takes the ride....
The market has put all the pieces together and likes the picture revealed. And the money – if not yet down – is expected.....
The horse trades at 9/2 and 4s generally this morning....
Of course, the job here at ATC is not to reiterate what the market is already telling you. Our job might be a little easier if it were. But who needs that?
Our role is to look beyond what everybody else in the market is backing and to focus instead on the horses that might be overlooked at the prices the market has set....
We take a contrarian stance. We always go against the grain. We set out to identify the horses the market is overlooking, underestimating or ignoring. We seek out the value....
Our assignment is always to seek out the right kind of horse – at the wrong price....
And the one that fits the bill for tomorrow afternoon’s 2m4f handicap is an Irish raider – the Denis Hogan trained KEROSIN....
The 8yo can be backed at a general 14s this morning. And I’m taking it....
The age of the horse might put some punters off but the age stats are not what they seem at first glance in this race and if a horse is good enough, fit enough and well-handicapped enough, it doesn’t matter how old it is....
In any case Hogan and owner James McAuley have been making a splash in recent times with exactly this type of horse – one with apparent problems, picked-up for a song but with the potential to be brought back to full-bloom....
McAuley is shrewd. Hogan is talented. As a combo, they’re going well and Kerosin can build on previous success....
But for bad luck in-running at the Curragh in May, the 8yo would be turning-out on a three-timer. He’s a one-time Group performer who was owned by Godolphin. And while his very best form was produced some time ago, he his coming back to the boil after being purchased by McAuley for just £12,000 and he will be spot-on fitness-wise for tomorrow’s assignment....
Can he rekindle former glories? Who knows? But he’s a horse on the way back and a mark of 93 is potentially generous if he Hogan’s magic can propel the horse forward again....
In short, Kerosin might have the profile of a back-number. But I think he can run a bigger race than profile and price suggest....
The buzz is all about Battaash in the King’s Stand Stakes at 3.40....
Rightfully so. When that one is on top of his game, you need a sports car to keep up. And he was as good as ever at Haydock last month....
Of course, at 2s that reputation for blistering speed is well-and-truly priced-in. He’s not a horse for our purposes. But he does help make the market for us. His shortness at the prices helps create a bit of length about other runners....
The one of those that I like at the prices is Archie Watson’s SOLDIER’S CALL at 14s....
He had a cracking juvenile season last term – winning a G2, a G3, running a massive race against older horses in the Prix de l’Abbaye and running well in the Juvenile Turf Sprint at the Breeders’ Cup meeting – despite blowing the start from the stalls....
He ran a decent-enough race under a penalty at York first-time-out this term – coming up against rivals who were fitter on the day....
Despite defeat, it was a performance full of promise. One that wasn’t far shy of a personal-best and one that the horse is entitled to come on for....
My take is that there is plenty more to come this term from one of the kore progressive horses in tomorrow’s field. Watson broke his Royal Ascot duck last year and I’m sure he will want to be going in again – at the top level – to cement a burgeoning reputation....
This is a sprinter that gives him every chance of doing so. It can run a massive race tomorrow at the odds. And that’s what it’s all about for me....
Tomorrow is a different day and a different race. But course-form is significant at York. And it is a plus to be on a horse who has shown he can act at the place....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Ascot Stakes (5.00 @ Ascot).
In the King’s Stand Stakes (3.40 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back tomorrow with my contrarian take on the action on Day 2 at Royal Ascot....
Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
Nick Pullen
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