Wednesday, 19th June 2019
Where the handicaps are concerned on Day 3 at Royal Ascot, it is the 3yos who come to the fore....
Both handicaps run on the card – the Britannia Stakes over the straight mile and the King George V Stakes – are restricted to that age group....
There isn’t the same form in the book to work with as there is when you’re dealing with races open to older and more experienced runners....
And that complicates things a little....
Most of these youngsters haven’t shown all their cards yet. Quite a few haven’t even run that often....
And the progression each horse might be capable of – tomorrow and in the fullness of time – is something of an unknown factor....
But the bookies are in the same boat....
So too the punters we are betting against in the market....
And the prices are there to be found precisely because of the difficulties and challenges races like this present the punter with....
I like AWE at the general 16s for the Britannia at 5.00....
William Haggas’s horse has done very little wrong this term and I reckon he’s going to prove a lot better than his current mark of 94....
Motafaawit, the horse that beat him a half-length at Ascot on soft ground in May, is now rated 103, opposes tomorrow and I reckon the form can be reversed....
On the day, the winner had the advantage of having already raced this term. The Haggas horse was having his first run back. So, it was a good effort to be able to get so close to the winner whilst pulling clear of the remainder....
At Haydock next time Awe found plenty of trouble in-running and was better than the paper form. He shaped like the step up to a mile suited. The time after that he got off the mark for the season at Newmarket over 7f....
He turns up a horse in good form under a nice weight and stepping back up tomorrow is sure to suit. He’s a contender at a nice price....
The other one I want to back at a price is Joseph O’Brien’s NUMERIAN....
The 20s is a big price about a horse that could prove to be very smart indeed....
He’s a Holy Roman Emperor colt who will be making his turf debut tomorrow and he has been highly thought of at home for a while now....
Not many horses will have made a turf debut in this kind of race and I suspect easier starting points could have been found for him if they didn’t think he was up to giving a good account of himself tomorrow off a decent break....
He improved for every start this winter and finished off by placing in a Listed race at Dundalk in March. That’s had a real impact on the handicapper’s view and he runs off 98 tomorrow....
But to get into these kinds of races, you need the mark. The horse has earned his place in the field and a shot at a decent pot....
And while his trainer is still in the early stages of constructing his Royal Ascot record and has only sent a small handful into 3yo handicaps at the meeting, those he has sent have shown enough to indicate that he tends to send them primed to go well....
These 3yo handicaps are obviously not easy contests to win but some trainers have better records than others when it comes to targeting the races with horses that get competitive and Saeed Bin Suroor has a good record in that department....
His GREAT EXAMPLE on handicap debut looks a nice bet to these eyes at 18s and 16s for tomorrow’s King George V Stakes at 5.30....
He didn’t make it easy for the handicapper at Ripon when he broke his maiden with an 8-length win last month....
He was well-eased down towards the finish by Pat Cosgrave – effectively disguising how far he might have won by – and I would be very surprised if a mark of 91 does not prove generous....
That Ripon performance was produced over 10f and tomorrow’s step-up to 12f should naturally improve the horse. He’s bred for the trip. His dam won over 14f....
Unlike Pat Cosgrave, the up-and-coming David Egan does 8-07 comfortably and gets this opportunity to shine – getting weight off most of his opponents....
I’m not worried about cut in the ground. Great Example is a full brother to Melodious who produced her best efforts on a softer surface.....
The bottom line is that this is a horse with plenty more to offer yet. And the big stage offered by tomorrow’s race is as good an opportunity as any to start delivering....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Britannia Stakes (5.00 @ Ascot).
In the King George V Stakes (5.35 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back tomorrow with my contrarian take on Day 4 at Ascot....
Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing this afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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