Thursday, 20th June 2019
If there’s a handicap race at the Royal meeting which the market finds easier than most then tomorrow’s Sandringham Stakes for the 3yo fillies is that race....
Six of the last 17 renewals were won by an outright favourite or a co-favourite – whilst another 5 winners were sent off second or third in the betting....
The average winning SP over the last 17-years amounts to a shade over 8s – and that tells you everything you need to know. This race has proven a sight easier to call than the other six handicaps run at the meeting....
Perhaps that is down to the fact that the race is restricted to fillies – a limited pool of talent that produces less competitive races....
Maybe. Who knows? We must play the ball where it lies....
Jamie Spencer is the man often on the back of a contender. He’s won this event 4 times and produced a stack of additional placers. This time round he’s on HOTSY TOTSY for Ed Walker....
Yesterday that one was at a single-figure price and I couldn’t have it. But with the 10s available this morning, I want to be with the man who is so frequently a component part of a winning Sandringham plan....
If the market knows the time of day in this race, then so does the handicapper....
The better horses tend to come to the fore with the last 38 runners rated 102 or bigger producing 5 winners and 9 places between them....
The handicapper reckons William Haggas’s MAGNETIC CHARM is the best horse going into tomorrow’s race on a rating of 105 and I reckon that view will turn out to be not too far off the mark. I want to be with the horse at 12s....
There was absolutely nothing wrong with her win in a Listed event at York on seasonal reappearance. She is entitled to come on for that and I reckon she will....
Haggas has a good record in this race and with James Doyle set to ride, this one looks like his main chance. The price is fair enough in that context.
Everything looks well-set for CORGI to produce a big run in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes tomorrow afternoon at 5.30....
First off, trainer Hughie Morrison has proved a real expert when it comes to targeting this specific race. He’s only run 4 over the last 17-years – but three of those won. That must be more than just an anomaly.....
Second, Corgi looked like a winner-in-waiting on seasonal reappearance at York – his first run since undergoing a wind procedure and being gelded....
He was 3rd that day behind First Eleven and Fujaira Prince but would probably have won had he been racing closer to the front two....
The form of that York race is strong with a couple of horses that finished own the field already having produced a couple of subsequent wins....
Fujaira Prince has gone up 4lb for his 2nd place. Corgi has gone up just a pound and I think he’s got a cracking chance. That’s why at 8s I am happy to take a shorter price than my average....
The other one I want to be with is Joseph O’Brien’s ARTHURIAN FAME at 12s....
He’s done nothing but improve at a rate of knots since being gelded and he is not finished yet. He’s on two from two this term – rising from 84 to 101 in the official ratings....
This race has been the plan for him since the second of those two in mid-May and you can expect him to produce a big run tomorrow. I think he’s a massive player and a double-figure price is plenty acceptable....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Sandringham Stakes (5.00 @ Ascot).
In the Duke of Edinburgh (5.30 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow with my contrarian take on the action on Day 5 at Ascot – with the Wokingham taking centre stage....
Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing this afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
