Friday, 5th July 2019
It didn’t go right for INDIANAPOLIS at Ayr last time out....
I’m not sure the trip was the problem....
Maybe it was the decision to change tactics with the horse and to race prominently rather than to hold-up....
Whatever, the 4yo wasn’t quite as good as he had been in his previous two runs....
First, he’d caught the eye on his comeback at Doncaster at the end of March....
Then at York in May in a hot handicap over 12f – he finished 6th of the 18 runners beaten just 4.5 lengths....
He might have been closer still....
He was drawn quite a bit wider than the horses that beat him home. And he also had to contend with being checked in the straight – before making late headway....
It was a very promising performance. The two horses that finished immediately in-front of and behind Indianapolis that day have both won since and been raised 7lbs and 5lbs respectively....
The horses that finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the York race all went on to show-up well in the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot. The winner, First Eleven is favourite for tomorrow’s race at Haydock at 7/2 – 5lbs higher up the scale – and fancied for the Ebor later in the season at York....
Trainer James Given is on-record as saying he believes the Ebor is a realistic aim for Indianapolis too. If that’s so, then a current mark of 95 is well short of where Given believes the horse could get to....
So, tomorrow’s Old Newton Cup at Haydock (3.15) offers the horse an opportunity to bounce back, to resume building on those earlier seasonal performances and to frank Given’s sentiments....
On the evidence of last time, the drop back to12f will benefit. And I’d imagine the tactics will be a little different....
The bottom-line is the price. Given’s horse is up at a general 25s. That’s a generous price about a progressive horse on a bit of a mission to get up the ranks and with the potential and scope to produce a big run....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Old Newton Cup (3.15 @ Haydock).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
No ATC Extra this afternoon. I’ll be back in your inbox next week....
Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing this weekend....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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