Wednesday, 24th July 2019
Glorious Goodwood gets underway next week....
It is one of the great meetings on the British racing calendar – and delivers 5 days of top-quality racing action Tuesday through Saturday....
More on our specific Goodwood target races....
There’s plenty of pattern-class action. And the G1 races – the Sussex, Nassau Stakes and Goodwood Cup – are the highlight of the meeting for the racing purists....
But for readers of the ATC service, it is the big handicap races run at the meeting which will take centre stage....
Huge fields competing for big prize money produce ultra-competitive races and betting markets right up our street – markets in which live horses capable of running big races are trading at big attractive prices....
Today we get started on the search for information, pointers and angles that will help us play those races to best effect next week....
In case you missed it....The Yorkshire Post ran an interesting piece last week.... Jockey Paul Hanagan provided a few insights into the vagaries of the eight tracks in Yorkshire.... Why sheep are a problem at Beverley.... What it is he really likes about Pontefract.... The underrated track that doesn’t provide too many hard luck stories.... and more.... Interesting insights from a weighing room veteran that will add something useful to your knowledge bank.... |
Mark Johnston has won ten handicaps at Glorious Goodwood in the last four years. He’s placed with another 23. No other trainer can match that haul....
But Johnston ran 105 handicappers in total to bank those numbers....
The challenge for punters is figuring out which Johnston runners will excel on the day. No easy task. Horses from Johnston’s yard frequently defy expectation....
Some of Johnston’s winning handicappers at the meeting were fancied. Others not. Plenty others that were fancied got beaten....
Johnston will be well-represented and competitive again this year. But he’s harder than others to catch right....
A better way of playing the Glorious Goodwood handicaps might be to concentrate your analysis (and/or betting) on horses from a small group of yards with a strong recent track record in those specific races....
The table below shows performance with handicappers at the last four Glorious Goodwood meetings (2015-2018)....
The win strike rates are all over the place, but the important figure is the place strike-rate....
In competitive big-field handicaps at big meetings, a 40%+ place strike-rate represents stand-out performance....
William Haggas, Sir Michael Stoute and Roger Varian are adept at producing ‘live’ handicappers for this meeting....
They’ve been doing it consistently at the last few Glorious Goodwood meetings....
It is reasonable to expect them to do so again this time around....
At the very least, the handicappers each of these trainers sends to the meeting is worth a second look based on the evidence of the last four years....
Win Goodwood tickets....Win tickets to the final day of Glorious Goodwood with the Chichester Observer.... You have until 2pm on Friday afternoon to get your entry in.... If you’re struggling for the answer to the question – Jason Watson is a good punt.... |
In big-field races at Goodwood you can be sure that trouble in running will play its part in multiple races across the week – especially in the races run around the turns....
Off the final bend, everything wants to be on the far side and things get tight for room....
Horses can find themselves trapped in against the rail or stuck behind a wall of horses and with no room to manoeuvre or proceed....
Interference is commonplace. So too argy-bargy. It can be chaotic. And races might be won or lost on the strength of it....
Luck plays a part of course. You can find yourself in the right place at the right time. Or in the wrong place. But skill surely plays a part too?
That’s a reasonable assumption. Horses don’t go to post alone. They have riders – whose role it is to assist the horse and to place him to best effect in the race....
Given the nature of big-field races around the Goodwood bend, it is reasonable to expect some riders will deal more effectively with the challenge than others....
Getting horses nicely-positioned, having a plan, knowing where they want to be, understanding how and when trouble might occur, knowing how to stay out of it and all the tricks and tactics that come with experience....
And you’d expect that ‘local knowledge’ to express itself in the overall performance record....
Ryan Moore shows up well. He always does. His 42 qualifying rides produced 9 winners at 21.4%. But the market is on to him....
Andrea Atzeni is more interesting. His 40 rides produced 9 winners at 22.5% and plenty more placed. That’s a standout performance compared to the rest....
Atzeni is a man to have on a horse around the bend at Goodwood. And you can consider him a distinct ‘positive’ on a handicapper in races around the turn.....
That’s all from me for today....
I’ll be back tomorrow with more winner-finding pointers and insights for Glorious Goodwood....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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