Thursday, 25th July 2019
Glorious Goodwood starts next Tuesday and runs through to Saturday....
It is one of the great meetings on the British racing calendar – and delivers 5 days of top-quality racing action Tuesday through Saturday....
There’s plenty of pattern-class action, but it is the big handicap races run at the meeting which will take centre stage for this column....
More on our specific Goodwood target races....
Huge fields competing for big prize money produce ultra-competitive races and betting markets right up our street – markets in which live horses capable of running big races are trading at big attractive prices....
Today we continue with the search for information, pointers and angles that will help us play those races to best effect next week....
If you missed Part 1 – catch up here....
If you’ve got a decent 6f handicapper than the race you want to win with it is surely the Stewards’ Cup....
It’s the most valuable 6f handicap on the British racing calendar – and it is run on the Saturday (Day 5) of the Glorious Goodwood meeting....
It’s highly-competitive race – a big pot guarantees that – with a massive field of sprinters going hell for leather along the 6f strip....
Such races are not easy to call. But difficulty is there to be overcome. And there are always ‘live’ horses to be backed at nice prices....
There will be 26 to 28 runners going to post. That’s a lot of horses to consider. You can dive straight in. Or you can get a little context and some clues to work with first....
That’s what I do. I get an overview and a base to work from by consulting the historic record.
The data points to useful avenues of investigation and can help direct your attention to horses of interest....
I’ve already done that work. Here are the main points you need to be aware of when looking for good bets in this year’s Stewards’ Cup....
The prize money for this race more than doubled in 2015. Bigger prizes attract better horses and the 4 winners since then have all been rated 102+.
Go back further and you find 7 of the last 8 winners of the race had a 3-figure rating....
Horses officially rated in the 90s are finding it harder....
There were plenty such horses in last season’s edition. But 5 of the first 7 home were 100+ horses. That was from a total representation of just nine (from 26 runners)....
Age is something to consider....
We had back to back 3yo winners in 15/16. That group can’t be discounted...
But overall superiority over 17-years (as far back as my records go) was banked by the 4- and 5-yos. They bagged 12 of 17 renewals....
The percentage play is to mark-up young over older. The 6yo+ horses banked just 3 wins. You need a good reason to back one of those in this race....
Match-fitness is key....
Just one horse in 17-years has managed to win this race having not been seen on the track during the last 8-weeks....
I can see how that would be. This is the hottest 6f handicap of the year. The best handicappers show up. For some this has been the race their season has been prepared around. Plenty show up in hot form. It’s high-standard. And competitive. It might be just that bit tough on a horse lacking match-sharpness and in need of a race....
One day, a horse will buck the trend. But, generally, a prep race is a plus....
These big guns merit respect....
William Haggas is a trainer who must be respected with anything in this race. His record from 2008 reads 2 winners and to placers from 8 runners....
Robert Cowell is another handler with a knack for producing the right kind of horse for this race. He’s produced a winner and gone close with two more from just 8 runners in total since 2009....
There are other useful pointers to note....
All the last 10 winners had already won at class 2 or better.....
All had already won at least one handicap race on the turf flat....
All had won at least twice over the 6f trip....
All the last 16 winners had appeared once at the track or not at all....
4 of the last 8 winners carried a penalty for a win scored since entries for the race closed....
10 of the last 16 winners had appeared in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot....
Win Goodwood tickets....Win tickets to the final day of Glorious Goodwood with the Chichester Observer.... You have until 2pm on Friday afternoon to get your entry in.... If you’re struggling for the answer to the question – Jason Watson is a good punt.... |
At Goodwood the 5f and 6f sprint handicaps are run up the straight....
At trips beyond 6f, races are run around one more of Goodwood’s right-handed bends....
Of course, where there is a bend – with some horses running wider than others – the draw can play a big part in the race outcome....
Horses drawn in inside stalls can be advantaged. They get to go the shortest way around. Whilst horses running out wider on the track – covering more ground from start to finish than those drawn low – face an element of extra adversity that they must overcome....
Many simply can’t overcome that adversity. In a field of closely-matched horse, the negative represented by starting the race in an outside stall is simply too big to scale and get beyond....
It is worth noting that races run around the Goodwood bends conform to this inside/outside bias. And horses drawn wide around a bend do find it difficult....
That is NOT to say that horses drawn wide in races of 10+ runners around the Goodwood bends CAN’T win. Because they can – and some of them do....
But the horses drawn on the inside are very much at an advantage. One that is reflected in the results at the meeting....
Over the last four Glorious Goodwood meetings there have been 48 handicap races run around the Goodwood turns with at least 10 horses going to post. 34 of the winners were in the bottom 75% of the draw.
And 36 of the 48 horses to finish 2nd in those races were drawn in the bottom 75% of the draw.
The figures drop off as you travel further down the finishing places, but I’m not concerned about that.
Edges taper out. The effects of an edge are finite. Horses have run well from high stalls. But the low stall horses have found it just that bit easier to win and place 2nd around the bends in these competitive Glorious Goodwood handicaps....
And that’s something worth knowing. It isn’t knowledge that will lead directly to winners. But it should focus your mind on the fact that you need to have a strong reason to back a horse drawn out wide in such races....
That’s all from me for today....
I’ll be back tomorrow with my contrarian take on the big races this weekend at Ascot and at York....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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