Friday, 26th July 2019
FANAAR is rated 100 for tomorrow’s International Stakes (3.00) at Ascot but carries just 8-11....
He gets 7lbs from the older horses on account of weight-for-age rules and the 3yo makes a decent bet for the 29-runner affair at the general 20s, 18s & 16s....
William Haggas’s charge wasn’t fancied at all for the Britannia – run during the Royal meeting at the track in June. But he ran a cracker to finish 3rd and clearly acts at the track and handles a big-field....
He might have been even closer that day had it not been for getting hampered at the start and meeting trouble in running at the 2-furlong pole....
That race was run over a mile. This one is over the 7f trip. And I reckon the shorter distance might suit.
In June, the 3yo was running out of puff in the final half-furlong. Over 7f, you’d expect him to be going strong all the way to the line....
He’s drawn on the right part of the track, he’s improved for every run this term on my figures and with the weight concession going for him this could turn out to be a productive bit of placement from William Haggas....
In a field like this I want to be two-against-the-field....
Ripp Orf and Raising Sand are always dangerous at this venue but the market has found them well enough to encourage me to look elsewhere. Arbalet was 2nd last year off a 3lb higher mark and put in a seasonal best in a Listed race at Windsor last time. But he’s short enough for me too....
The one I like at the prices is Mark Johnston’s LAKE VOLTA at 20s...
He’s been in cracking form of late. Four of his best six career performances have been produced since the last week of May....
Most recently he was 5th in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket’s July meeting and last week he found just one too good in a 6f race at Hamilton....
Johnston clearly has his horse in fine fettle. This will be the 4yo’s third race in a fortnight but Johnston’s horses take more racing better than most and this one could well run big at a price....
I like the step back up to 7f, I like the big field and I like that Ryan Moore is back in the saddle. Most of all, I like the price....
After that last race, the 18-runner Dash Handicap (2.40) up at York looks like a small-field race in comparison – but it’s a typically competitive race and one I want to be playing in tomorrow....
I don’t know if David O’Meara feeds his horses Weetabix, but whatever his team rustle up in the kitchen certainly suits TOMILY....
The 5yo had lost his way to some extent under Richard Hannon and signed off for that yard with a win in a lowly C6 seller at Windsor at the start of the month where he was picked up by O’Meara....
He’s two from two for his new yard since then. It’s not luck. O’Meara has worked some unknown magic and it is worth noting....
Wins in C5 and C4 handicaps are nothing to get completely carried away about but this horse has rated as high as 104 in the past, his confidence appears to be returning, he’s fit and he turns out tomorrow under a 5lb penalty with a 7lb claimer on his back....
In short, he is weighted to put in a massive race if O’Meara really has cleaned the plugs and got them firing again. At 16s I am happy to bet that’s the case....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the International Stakes (3.00 @ Ascot).
In the Dash Handicap (2.40 @ York).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
No ATC Extra today. I’ll be back in your inbox next week....
Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
