Monday, 29th July 2019
It’s Glorious Goodwood week – Tuesday through Saturday – and if that doesn’t get the racing punter’s juices flowing then nothing will....
Whether you’re stuck at work, enjoying retirement or counting down the days in prison – the week will be all the better for top-quality action out on the track....
As per usual we’ll be looking for value in the big handicaps and hoping to latch on to a winner at a price....
Tomorrow is Day 1 and there are two races I want to have a crack at. We’ll get down to business shortly....
First, a look back at the weekend....
The pistol Van Gogh shot himself with sold at auction in France recently for £115k....
I can’t understand why anybody would pay that kind of money for a rusty old relic....
But as a racing picker going through a dry spell that puts the Sahara to shame, I can sometimes see where old Vincent was coming from. The racing game tests your psychological mettle....
The race-selection part of the job here at ATC is divided into two parts – one of which we have more control over than the other....
First, we look to go in early and get a value price about a potentially competitive horse the market is underestimating....
Second, we look to that horse to justify our faith by going out onto the track and putting the opposition to the sword....
Right now, I’m getting the first part of the job done as well as I hope to....
It is the second part of the job that isn’t quite clicking. The horses are not obliging....
Fanaar, Lake Volta and Tomily all contracted in price subsequent to me putting them up for races at Ascot and York on Saturday – the first and last-named considerably – but none of them came close to sealing the deal....
The top two in the market – Raising Sand and Kaeso – fought out the finish in the International....
The winner in the Dash up at York was sent off at 10s....
When the market horses – the horses the market is keen on – come to the fore, it is always going to be a difficult day for me....
I am a contrarian. I always take on the short horses (that’s the nature of this column). And when the market gets it right, I get the same kicking the bookmakers take....
Saturday’s races were a case in point. The market was pretty much on the ball. And that’s been the case for most of the time this season in the races we target – handicaps worth £20k+ to winning connections....
The average winning price in those races this term amounts to a shade under 10s....
50 of the 76 such winners to date were sent off under 10s....
More than 50% of such races were won by a horse in the top 3 in the betting....
It’s not been an ideal environment for a picker who generally focuses his attention further down the market....
A run of results like that makes an already difficult job – picking out value in the toughest and most competitive big-field races on the programme – more difficult still....
But there’s no point in me moaning and groaning. That’s the nature of the contrarian game we play in the big handicaps at ATC....
Sometimes readers get in touch with well-meaning advice cunningly disguised as abuse....
Don’t bother about price they tell us – just find winners. That’s the general theme....
But we do bother about price. That’s the way we play. Always have. Always will.
We figure that readers don’t need us to put up horses that are already fancied. They can do that themselves. One look at the market gets that job done....
Instead, we see it as our role to alert you to horses that may be overlooked and underestimated at bigger prices....
We get more wrong than we get right. Always have. Always will. And we have dry spells....
But we have purple patches too. And the bits we get right can offset a hell of a lot of what we get wrong....
I haven’t had a winner in a while. But, if it were not for a nose and half a length at Royal Ascot, for example, we would have had a couple of winners at 25s. On such small margins do these things sometimes rest....
The corner is always there to be turned. And I am due....
There is plenty more to take out of the action at the weekend – lessons to be learned, observations to take forward, horses and issues to be aware of....
We’ll get onto that as the week proceeds. Right now, I want to focus on the action at Goodwood tomorrow....
SOTO SIZZLER is an interesting bet at 11s for the Unibet Handicap at 1.50 tomorrow....
He’s long been considered a horse that needs a trip by trainer William Knight. He’s been doing his winning this term at 12f, he’s got an entry in the Ebor and the expectation was that his target for this meeting would be Saturday’s 1m6f handicap.
But here he is dropping back to 10f. My assumption is that his last time out performance under Oisin Murphy – who partners again tomorrow – at Kempton prompted connections to have a crack at the shorter trip....
I reckon he’s got the speed for the 10f. And, it should be noted that his sire did the best of his business at the trip.
The interesting thing about the horse is that he excels at up-and-down tracks. He’s got winning form at Epsom and at Goodwood and will handle things better than most. And you can expect him to be primed at his local track.
The Chelsea Barracks Handicap at 4.45 showcases several veteran sprinters who haven’t been at their best of late. They don’t take much out of the book and the principals are shorter for it.
For me LORD RIDDIFORD rates a bet at this afternoon’s general 13/2.
His trainer and jockey won this race in combination with El Astronaute in 2017 and they won with this horse at this meeting last year, when he showed plenty of pace and handled the track well.
He’s been a little in-and-out since then but I imagine this meeting has been the plan for him and I don’t see him weighted out of it on 93.
He produced a cracking effort off that mark at the Curragh in June from the wrong side of the draw. And he produced a good effort as a 3yo up against older horses from the off just a pound lower in last season’s Portland at Doncaster.
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Unibet Handicap (1.50 @ Goodwood).
In the Chelsea Barracks Handicap (4.45 @ Goodwood).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
If you’re looking to find your own bets this week, we’ve put a few pointers into a PDF that you might find useful. You can download that here....
I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow with more analysis and my idea of the value on Day 2 at Goodwood....
Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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