Tuesday, 30th July 2019
This column is at Goodwood this week for the 5-day Festival....
Today is Day 1 – you can find my take on the value in the two big handicaps set to be run this afternoon here....
There are two more handicaps to target tomorrow – and we’ll get onto the nitty-gritty with those shortly....
Before that, one or two points of interest arising from the big handicaps run at the weekend....
There’s no doubt that the high stalls are the place to be in the big-field handicaps over the straight 7f strip at Ascot....
We prepared you in advance of Saturday’s renewal of the International. And the outcome of the race served to frank our observations....
Raising Sand won out of stall 21, Kaeso chased him home out of stall 23, Blue Mist was 3rd from stall 27 and Ripp Orf was 4th out of stall 26....
That’s about as pronounced as it gets. And what it means is this....
There are 4 valuable big-field handicaps run over the straight 7f at Ascot over the course of the season....
Only 4 of the last 18 editions of those races were won by a horse emerging from a single-figure stall. Eleven of the last 15 winners came out of stall 14 or bigger....
It’s a similar story with the horses that finished in 2nd place. Only 5 of the 18 ran out of a single-figure stall. Eleven were berthed in stall 14 or higher….
It’s a trend well worth bearing in mind as a field-splitter for September’s Cunard and October’s Challenge Cup – both races run over course and distance and both races sure to attract a big-field....
The exception to the general rule in Saturday’s race was Roger Fell’s Admirality....
The 5yo was 5th of the 23 horses that went to post despite starting from all the way over on the far side in stall 1....
That stall can be considered a form of adversity and the horse deserves credit for winning the race on that side of the track – beating Larchmont Lad 1.25 lengths....
It was the latest in a sequence of good efforts from the horse. Fell has had the horse in good order all term since getting him from Johnny Murtagh....
His form figures for the season read as follows: 1/10; 8/15 (btn 8.5l); 2/20 (1.75l); 3/10 (2.25l); 3/17 (1l); 4/13 (3.5l) & 5/23 (5.25)....
The one poor performance came on heavy ground at Haydock. Other than that, he has been very much there or thereabouts. Two of his last three good efforts have come in big handicaps worth £50k+ to winning connections....
The horse in clearly fit and firing right now and it would be no surprise at all if he went in. But I wonder if he is just in the grip of the handicapper on a mark of 95....
His sights could be lowered a little of course – but the price wouldn’t be there for punters....
And at some point he might get a little assistance from the handicapper. But it hasn’t been forthcoming for now....
He remains on 95 going forward and he’s going to need it all to fall right in these big handicap races....
There’s plenty more to extract from last Saturday’s big handicaps – and we’ll get to that as the week rolls on....
Now, we must turn our attention to tomorrow’s big handicaps at Goodwood....
The handicaps restricted to the 3yo horses are a bit of a minefield at the best of times and I am not particularly taken with the shape of the market for the one at Goodwood tomorrow afternoon – so I’m giving it the swerve....
We don’t have to be betting in every race that comes along. Especially when we’re ‘reaching’ to find value....
I’m going to content myself tomorrow with an interest in the long-distance handicap that opens the card – the Unibet Goodwood Handicap at 1.50. And I want to be two-against-the field....
Hughie Morrison has a good record in the race from not many participants – he’s won it twice and placed once – and his FUN MAC looks a good bet for tomorrow at the general 16s & 14s.
He’s been a standing dish in these long-distance events for a few seasons now. This term he’s already showed up well in the Chester Cup and the Ascot Stakes....
He’s got form at Goodwood but hasn’t been to this meeting for a couple of years with Morrison preferring to aim his horse at other targets....
But he’s back at the Sussex venue this time around and – having dropped from a mark of 101 to 90 since last May when finishing 2nd in the 2018 edition of the Chester Cup – he is weighted to run big....
In Andrea Atzeni, he has certainly got the right man onboard to help him round the Goodwood turns. He’s 8 and some might be put off by his approaching veteran status. But that’s no bar to success in this long-distance race and it is his mark that draws me in. I reckon he’s still well better than 90 and that clinches it....
The other one I want to be with is the Ian Williams-trained ZUBAYR at the general 16s & 14s....
Williams is another handler with form in this race – and in long-distance events generally – and his dual purpose 7yo won’t be here to make up the numbers....
The perception is that he is the second-string for the yard but he’s a classy operator who used to be with Paul Nicholls over the jumps before he went off the boil....
Signs were last time at Southwell over timber that Williams is making progress with the horse and he could be very sweetly rated on the turf with a mark of just 83....
He’ll be fitter for that run back in mid-June, he’s had a nice break to recover and, unlike some of tomorrow’s opposition, he’s pretty-much sure to stay this marathon flat trip if he’s on-song....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Unibet Goodwood Handicap (1.50 @ Goodwood).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow with my take on the action on Day 3....
Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing this week....
P.S. Saturday’s Stewards’ Cup is the feature handicap at Goodwood this week Go here for field-splitters and pointers that will help you locate good bets....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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