Wednesday, 31st July 2019
It is day 2 at Goodwood today and our target is the 2m4f handicap at 1.50. If you missed my advice for that race, you can pick it up here....
The 3yos take centre stage for us on Day 3 at Goodwood (tomorrow) in the Unibet Handicap that opens the card at 1.50....
Only 11 horses go to post. It’s a bit of a disappointing turn-out and sometimes races with that kind of shape are best left alone....
But you must judge every race on a case-by-case basis and if you can make a solid argument for one at a decent price, you must go in....
And that’s what I’ll be doing a little later in this piece....
First, back to last weekend and a horse who did enough to earn a place on the ATC Watch List....
Ripp Orf has a cracking record at Ascot....
It was at the Berkshire track last year that he really burst on to the 7f scene with a win in the Victoria Cup in the May off a mark of 83 and a follow-up win in the Cunard in September off 10lb higher....
In between times he’d placed 3d in the International – beaten just a length – and then in October he’d finished 2nd in the Challenge Cup behind last Saturday’s winner Raising Sand....
If that isn’t the record of a horse that excels in a big-field handicap up the 7f straight at Ascot then I don’t know what is. He finished the 2018 season on a mark of 98....
This term hasn’t seen him at that level. He’s been on the scene without leading the charge. He was 5th in the Lincoln at Doncaster, 5th in the Victoria Cup and 6th in the Bunbury (with one or two clunkers thrown in for good measure) heading into Saturday’s race....
Trainer David Elsworth took the decision to apply a first-time tongue-tie to Ripp Orf on Saturday....
Whether or not that assisted the horse is probably moot, I thought the 5yo produced a promising effort under Hayley Turner on ground that probably wouldn’t have been ideal for him....
For me, he wants a genuinely sound surface to produce his best. He’s certainly won most of his races on that kind of surface. On Saturday it was good to soft....
But he still managed to make the frame and he was the one horse in the mix at the end who’d been off the pace in the nearside group in the early stages of the race....
For my money, he saw a bit too much daylight too early on the wing of the group and would have benefitted from cover deeper into the race....
But it was an encouraging performance. The way he made up ground and finished off suggests (at least to my eyes) that he is working his way back to becoming a winning proposition....
Our Watch List....Races deliver a result that doesn’t change. Once a race is over, most punters simply move on to the next.... But here at ATC we take the view that races represent the most current source of information about horses that didn’t win – and are worth taking the time to study in detail.... Where we believe a horse has advertised its readiness to win, we add that horse to our Watch List – and we keep those horses on the list for a period of 90 days or until they do what we hope and win a race (hopefully at a nice price).... We don’t advise backing them blind – but only when conditions and opposition are suitable, and the price acceptable.... |
The mark, of course, is almost everything in the handicap sphere. Ripp Orf raced off 93 on Saturday and the handicapper shaved another point off his official rating yesterday morning....
He is back on a winning mark and he looks set to capitalise sooner rather than later....
Next month’s Cunard is probably his best chance of getting the quick ground he needs at Ascot....
The Challenge Cup in October is more likely to offer a surface with cut as it did last year – and it might not be a complete bar as Ripp Orf finished 2nd that day....
But it doesn’t necessarily have to be Ascot....
Ripp Orf has gone well elsewhere and is weighted to be a dangerous proposition wherever he turns up. And he is worth looking out for....
Now, back to the action at Goodwood tomorrow....
I couldn’t argue you with anybody who wanted to back William Haggas’s Sinjaari for tomorrow afternoon’s 1.50 at Goodwood....
The Camelot colt was heavily fancied for the King George at Royal Ascot but didn’t seem to see out the 12f trip....
It is too early to write the horse off, this step back to 10f looks sure to suit better and I understand the repeat interest in the market. The Haggas horse is vying for favouritism at 7/2 in places and 11/2 generally....
I can’t take that price. But I’m interested in Andrew Balding’s FOX PREMIER at the general 10s....
He was just a length behind the Haggas horse at Ascot. He too didn’t seem to stay the trip but he might have finished in a lot better placing if it were not for a nightmare passage. He was impeded early doors and then he didn’t get a clear run and had to be switched as the race was developing at the 2f pole....
He too will be better for the drop back in trip. And with a better passage – not always guaranteed at Goodwood – he can prove a better and more competitive proposition than his price in the ante-post market this morning suggests....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Unibet Handicap (1.50 @ Goodwood).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow with my contrarian take on the action on Day 4 at Goodwood....
Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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