Friday, 2nd August 2019
We’ve got plenty to get through with two big-field races to target at Goodwood tomorrow afternoon....
And we start with the headline feature for handicap fans which is the Stewards’ Cup at 3.40 – where a bumper field of 28-runners will go hell for leather up the 6f straight....
This is the handicap sprint that all the trainers want to win. And every punter in the country would love to find the winner of this race at a price....
If you want to have a crack at finding your own bet in the race, you might find these pointers of some assistance when it comes to splitting the field....
As is always the case with these valuable big-field handicaps, you can make a case for 70% of the runners. But you can’t back them all....
What I’m looking for is competitive horses at value prices. And in a race of this nature I want to do my usual trick of being two against the field....
One that fits the bill is RAUCOUS for Robert Cowell at the general 25s....
Robert Cowell has won this race before and he can do it again with this rejuvenated ex-inmate of William Haggas’s yard....
The 6yo struggled to find his form when first joining Cowell. But he got back into the swing of it on the All-Weather over the winter and has maintained his progression on turf over the summer....
He ran a cracker in the Wokingham to finish 4th at a big price. He followed that up by winning a valuable optional claimer at Yarmouth last time in good fashion....
He’s in cracking form right now. I reckon the horse is back to the level he was at when 3rd in the 2016 renewal of tomorrow’s race as a 3yo and he can run a big race at a price under 5lb claimer Cieren Fallon tomorrow....
The other one I want to back is David O’Meara’s ARECIBO at 16s. He’s improved markedly this term following a gelding procedure....
He won a handicap at Ayr at the start of last month. He followed up at Ripon where he got done into 2nd by a course specialist. And he was 2nd again last time at Ascot where he might just have been done a bit for pace at the death over the minimum trip....
It was certainly his best performance for O’Meara since arriving from France in April. And he can go on again....
Frankie Dettori is an interesting booking. You’d imagine he wouldn’t be short of options. And the fact that he’s on this one hints at some expectation from connections. In that context, the price is attractive enough....
Earlier on the card at 1.50 in the Stewards’ Sprint Handicap I want to be with PUDS at 10s....
It’s not the biggest price but this horse is the one horse in the race that you can rely on being entirely suited by tomorrow’s track....
All her best performances have been booked at the venue and there’s no reason she can’t go well again tomorrow. The big field is a fresh challenge, but it might well suit a proper hold-up run under Shane Kelly....
She’s been very consistent this term – posting form figures of 132122 – with the last three of those runs coming at Goodwood. She’s been given a break and you’d imagine she’s been targeted at this Saturday for a while....
COUNT OTTO is a big price at 25s and possesses the ability to outrun that market assessment....
He got beaten over 5f at the meeting earlier in the week but produced a good performance in this race last term as a 3yo from the wrong side of the draw....
He won at Epsom at the start of last month and can clearly handle running downhill. His trainer removed the blinkers for that Epsom run. They were back on at Goodwood in defeat earlier in the week – but the 4yo runs without them again tomorrow. And that could prove a positive. The 25s is just a big price about a small, well-balanced horse who won’t mind the track....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Stewards’ Cup (3.40 @ Goodwood).
In the Stewards’ Sprint Handicap (1.50 @ Goodwood).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back in your inbox next week with more handicap insight and analysis ....
Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing this weekend....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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