Monday, 19th August 2019
York’s 4-day Ebor Festival kicks off on Wednesday....
There are plenty of competitive big-field handicaps to shoot at across the week, but the headline event is Saturday’s Ebor Handicap....
A big field will go to post for the C2 event contested over the 1m6f trip by horses aged 4yo+....
The race is right up my street. You can guarantee that there will be horses going to post at prices which under-estimate how competitive they can get on the day....
Ordinarily, my first port of call with these big handicaps is the historic record – the stats related to previous renewals of the race....
Of course, stats don’t win big handicap races. Well-treated horses do. But the stats are a useful aide nonetheless....
They offer a useful and informative starting point for your analysis – an initial route into a race. That’s how I use the stats – as a starting point. No more. No less....
The statistical record can tell you a great deal about the type of horse that tends to win a specific contest and why....
The statistical record can point you to horses of interest that are worthy of further and more detailed investigation....
The statistical record can help you reduce a big-field to a shortlist of qualified types....
The statistical record is a good place to start....
That said there are few hard and fast rules to rely on in racing. Long-term readers will know as much....
Cling too tightly to any one stat or trend, and you run the risk of being undone by Sod’s Law – which was written specifically to undermine punter-complacency....
But we can use what has gone before to build an outline picture.... to weigh the balances.... to understand the nature of the percentages and how they have played out....
But punters need to be careful with this season’s edition of the Ebor – because the nature of the race has changed over the last couple of years....
In 2017, connections of the Ebor winner took home £177k. Last year they won £311k. This year the winner will earn a cool £600k....
A bigger prize pot attracts better horses. The average official rating of an Ebor runner in 2017 was 104.6. Last year that figure had risen to 105.6.
With the prize money going up almost 93% again this year, I expect that figure to increase again....
And it changes the landscape of the race....
There was a time that getting on a low-weighted horse rated in the 90s (or even the 80s) at a price was the way forward in the Ebor. Nowadays, those horses don’t even get a sniff of getting into the race....
In those days, smaller yards had a fighting chance of glory. But with the prize money increasing and the better horses dominating the entries, the future trend will surely be towards the bigger and more powerful yards. John Gosden saddling the first two home last year is not coincidence....
Going forward, the major-league yards will have the option of sending Group-class horses into this handicap because the rewards demand it and the weights are not going to be prohibitive – because other big yards will do the same thing with their Group-class runners....
The Ebor is now a Melbourne Cup style race run in Britain. I have no problem with that. But it changes things for punters – specifically those punters who slavishly follow trends.....
The alterations made to the race are recent and they serve to undermine previous established trends based on significantly different race conditions....
The Ebor is a completely different race this time around. The previous rules do not apply. And it will take time for new rules and trends to become established. You should bear that in mind....
I had someone lob a stat at me over the weekend....
‘Sixteen of the last 17 Ebor winners carried 9-04 or less....’
It’s a proud little stat that might strut about the farmyard like cock of the North. But what use is it?
The stat refers to years and editions of the race when the spread between the top-rated horse and the bottom-rated horse might amount to up to 20 points on the official rating scale (20 pounds in weight carried)....
I stress again – the race has changed. What happed 15 or 10 or even 7 years ago is no longer relevant....
Last year, with new and improved prize money up for grabs, the spread from the top-rated horse to the bottom-rated horse amounted to just 10 points across 20 runners....
In other words, the weights are likely to be more compressed now that the race is more competitive – and that favours the better-rated horses. A lower spread makes it easier for them to compete carrying more weight....
The winner last year carried 9-09. That’s right! Last year was the one year out of the last 17 when the old rules failed to apply....
All the first 5 horses home last year carried 9-04 or more. Three of the first four home were first, third and fifth in the weights....
The old 16 out of 17 stat reads like a field-splitter made from 32-carot gold. But looks can be deceptive. You need to dig a little deeper and think a little harder to get to the truth....
The truth is this: the Ebor has changed as a race over the last couple of years. The old field-splitting stats will not help you this time around. They will only serve to lead you down blind alleys....
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
I’ll be looking at one stat you might still be able to rely on in this season’s renewal of the Ebor....
And I’ll bring you my idea of the value in the handicap races run on Day 1 at York’s Ebor meeting....
Until then. Stay tuned.
Nick Pullen
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