Tuesday, 20th August 2019
The Ebor meeting gets underway at York tomorrow....
This column will be at the meeting for all 4 days and – among other things – I will be bringing you my idea of the value in the big-field handicap races....
We get started on that job a little later in today’s column. I’ll be sharing my view on the handicaps on Day 1....
But before we get to that, I want to continue from where I left off yesterday....
The nature of the Ebor Handicap has changed. Prize money levels have increased significantly over the last couple of years....
That alteration to circumstances and conditions has led and will continue to lead to better horses contesting the race than was the case in previous years....
And, as such, the old rules that helped punters make sense of the race in years gone by cannot be trusted. They no longer have much – if any – relevance....
Rely on the trends produced by the Ebor editions of yesteryear and you will probably come to regret doing so....
But one thing hasn’t changed....
The race will still be run around the flat 1m6f strip at York – comprising three left-handed bends....
Whenever there’s a big-field race run around one or more bends we must be open to the possibility that the horses drawn widest are at a disadvantage to the horses drawn lowest....
It makes sense, doesn’t it? The horses drawn out wide will likely be covering more ground than those drawn inside. And that cannot be advantageous....
Either that or the riders on those wide-drawn horses will need to sacrifice valuable energy early doors in order to secure better racing position on the track – a manoeuvre that might cost them dear at the business end of the race when every ounce of reserve energy might count....
The case for a ow draw over a high draw makes theoretical sense. But sense and practice rarely come together where horse racing is concerned....
That is one of the sport’s many charms – and a feature of the game that encourages people like me to persist with the delusion that we might one day become clever enough to finally crack the code once and for all....
What makes sense theoretically does not meet with what generally happens in practice in the Ebor at York (Note: the 2008 renewal was run at Newbury)....
14 of the last 16 Ebor winners at York ran from a double-figure stall....
A sample of 16 hardly amounts to scientific rigour. Any fool knows that....
And what has happened in the last 16 editions of the Ebor renewals run at York might well prove to be a statistical aberration over the course of the next millennium....
But I don’t have the luxury of waiting that long to find out. I must take a view on this issue now....
And, right now, I cannot accept that so many horses overcame what on paper appears to be a disadvantage as a result of luck or happenstance....
The distribution of placed horses supports this view too....
22 of the 47 placed horses in those 16 Ebor renewals at York were drawn in a single-figure stall....
Yes, the placed-horse figures conform a little more closely to theoretical expectation – that low drawn horses should do well....
But the low stalls still manage to produce less than 50% of the placers....
Perhaps the conclusion we should draw – however tentative – is that being drawn low in the Ebor at York is not the advantage it appears to be on paper. It is not the plus-point that sense or theory suggest it might be....
Indeed, it might instead be something of an impediment or a handicap....
I don’t want to get all theoretical on you. My race-riding experience amounts to the thin end of nothing whittled to a fine point....
But maybe horses drawn low in this big-field long-distance event get swept along a little too quickly early-on – and are positioned to have no say in the matter....
Whilst those drawn wider are free to drop in behind, take things more sedately early-doors and conserve energy for the big push late on....
I don’t know. But that’s how it seems to me....
My primary point is this: I don’t think the changes made to the prize money up for grabs or the ratings of the horses contesting the race on Saturday will make much difference to this track-specific feature of the race....
However rich the contest, however grand the horses and connections, and as counter-intuitive as it might seem, being out wide might well remain the right place to be at the start....
The Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap opens the Ebor meeting at 1.55 with a big field going at it up the 5f straight….
If you play at prices, as I do, you have to accept that the horse you back won’t tick every box. You are always taking something on trust….
The Charles Hills trained A MOMENTOFMADNESS has been out of form this season – and he didn’t set the Goodwood turf alight last time out….
But that was his first run back off a break and the jockey booking that day didn’t encourage the view that he was out in earnest. But he should be fitter for it….
This time around the horse is reunited with William Buick. And that’s significant. They have done well together. And the last time the pair combined was at the tail end of last season when they won the Portland at Doncaster off a mark of 99….
The horse was raised to 104 for that but has dropped back now to 95 and is dangerously well-handicapped if Hills has him back on-song….
The booking of Buick is the key to this bet. But I am also mindful that the horse ran well in this race two years ago off tomorrow’s mark – despite his blindfold being removed after the race had started….
He will need to bounce back. If he does, he’s a player off his current mark. And the 20s is a fair enough price in that context….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap (1.55 @ York).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
Something that leads to a flash link or even two....
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
I’ll be looking at a key issue heading into the York meeting a little differently than the rest....
And I’ll be bringing you my take on the value in the handicaps on Day 2....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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