Friday, 30th August 2019
Another weekend rolls around and it is a relatively quiet one for us....
There’s plenty to look forward to in the weeks ahead with races like the Portland, the Ayr Gold Cup, the Dubai Duty Free, the Cambridgeshire and the Cesarewitch to look forward to....
But tomorrow we must make do with a rare foray onto the All-Weather in the Chelmsford City Cup at Chelmsford (7.15) over the 7f trip....
And let’s not get too sniffy about it. It’s a good race....
There’s a £100k prize pot up for grabs, the race has been awarded ‘Heritage’ status and there are 16 horses going to post – five of them rated in three-figures. It’s not your run of the mill All-Weather handicap....
We’ll get onto my idea of the value in that race shortly. First, a few thoughts on the Flat Jockeys Championship....
In case you don’t know, these days the Flat Jockeys Championship only concerns races run between the 4th May and the 19th October on the turf or on the AW....
In other words, there’s just over six weeks to go before the new champion is crowned....
And it’s boiled down to a shootout between Oisin Murphy and Danny Tudhope....
Right now, with all the latest results included in the calculations, Oisin Murphy has got first run on Tudhope. Tudhope is playing catch-up as the table below illustrates....
The market makes Murphy a 1/10 shot to lift the title. That tells you all you need to know. Tudhope is up against it in this two-horse race....
But 6-weeks is a long time....
Injury, suspension, a staggeringly poor run of results, or a stupendously good one could still play a part. Maybe....
I guess it comes down to belief. And I don’t know if Danny Tudhope still believes or not....
And it’s not really any of my concern. I wish both men all the best....
But my question is this: does the format of the Jockeys Championship really establish who is top man in the weighing room?
For sure, Oisin Murphy has ridden most winners over the crucial period....
But he’s also ridden more horses than Tudhope. Murphy has had more chances to ride winners – and he has taken plenty of those chances. But does that make him top man?
Tudhope is the man with the better ratio when it comes to turning rides into winners. His strike-rate is 21.4% compared to Murphy’s 19%. Surely that must count for something....
If Tudhope had taken the same number of rides that Murphy has taken, the expectation is that he would have ridden 137 winners. With the same volume of rides, he would be out in front now....
And what about the money? Money is what makes the world go around. Money is the means by which we often keep score and measure success. Why not here?
The table below highlights the money won by each rider since 4th May, the rides taken and the money earned per ride. Once again, Tudhope is the man out in front....
We could probably get through a couple of pints discussing the merits of these and other measures....
But I am a handicap man and I believe in keeping handicap analysis separate from other forms of racing....
I see conditions races as being determined largely on raw ability. I see the outcome of handicaps as being largely based on advantage....
The horses that contest handicaps are (generally speaking) of a similar standard. The races are designed (theoretically at least) to end in dead heats. And it makes sense to me that the horse with the most advantages in his locker on the day (whatever those advantages consist of) on the day) has an edge over the rest....
The jockey riding the horse can be one such advantage – or disadvantage. And I wonder whether Murphy or Tudhope comes out on top on that measure. That too – how each man does in the most competitive form of racing – might tell us something about the merits of each rider....
The table below highlights the figures for the handicap rides taken by each rider since 4th May....
There’s nothing in it really. Both men have maintained a strong average – with Murphy just shading it....
And what about in C2 events – the type this column limits its focus to? The table below tells the story....
It’s close again with Murphy just shading it on strike-rate....
In conclusion, taking all measures together, Murphy just about deserves to be out in front in this year’s race....
He’s been prepared to hit the motorway network harder than Tudhope to get the rides required to get his head in front. Ultimately, that’s made the difference....
Murphy probably wants it that bit more this time around. Desire and dedication to the task in hand bring their own rewards....
Nobody can have any complaints if or when he lifts the trophy in October....
At this stage only race sponsors Betfred and sister-company Totesport are up with ante-post prices for tomorrow night’s Chelmsford City Cup (7.15). But you can get the gist from their take on the race....
The right horses are at the top of the market. What I’m looking for is one that can outrun a bigger price....
INTISAAB might be out wide in stall 16 and his form might be patchy this term (at best) but I am inclined to take a punt on him at a big 25s....
This time last year he was rated 108. He’s dropped since then to tomorrow’s mark of 99. If he’s on his game, he’s handicapped to be there or thereabouts....
It’s a big if, of course. But it’s not like the 8yo has completely gone at the game. There have been sporadic decent efforts this term – most notably at York in June....
And it catches my eye that David O’Meara applies a first-time tongue tie tomorrow. O’Meara is 5 from 20 using that first-time headgear (with a handful of places to boot). I’d say there’s a reasonable chance the tie will produce an improved effort....
I take the booking of Oisin Murphy as a positive too. The champ in waiting surely had options in this race. Getting on this one is something of an endorsement and I reckon a bit more might be expected than the price suggests.
At any rate, I am happy to put my money where my mouth....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow night…. In the Chelmsford City Cup (7.15 @ Chelmsford).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned. And enjoy the racing this weekend....
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