Friday, 6th September 2019
It’s that time of the week when I put on the tin head, stick my head above the parapet and tell you what I’m backing at a price in the big handicaps tomorrow....
A proper course and distance man would have to be backing Ripp Orf for tomorrow’s Cunard at Ascot....
Of the 17 in tomorrow’s field, David Elsworth’s 5yo is the one that stands out as a specialist up the 7f strip at the track....
He won a Victoria Cup off 91 on it. He won last year’s edition of tomorrow’s race off 93 on it. And he’s hit the frame in the other four big-field handicaps he’s run up it....
On a mark of 94, he is weighted to be competitive. He is well-drawn in stall 15 too.
It would be no surprise to see him go in under Jason Watson – who has ridden the horse to good effect at the track twice before....
But he’s been well-found in the market. And, whatever the positives (and they are clear to see), I wouldn’t want to be taking the 11/2....
I prefer to take the 16s about Hugo Palmer’s ARBALET....
He will need to bounce back from what has been an underwhelming season to date....
But quick ground is key to this horse and he hasn’t had any for a while. He looks likely to get some at Ascot tomorrow....
The last time he got those conditions – and tomorrow’s 7f trip – was when 2nd in the International last July as a 3yo. He did that off 104, got raised to 106 and went on to run 3rd in a G3 at York....
This season has been a bit of a dud. He was still contesting Listed races until June. He was then sent back to Ascot for this season’s International where he finished down the field. The cut in the ground that day wouldn’t have helped him....
He was pulled out of race at Doncaster on account of the soft ground and headed to York to run in a mile handicap. He never got into it but did earn the comment ‘looked well’ from the race reader....
This horse likes Ascot. Prior to the International last year, he’d run well in the G3 Jersey Stakes at the Royal meeting. At this trip, on quick ground, he’s a player if he goes as well as he looked at York....
And he’s getting a crack off just 95. And that’s a real opportunity. Connections will be looking to capitalize....
If Arbalet produces at the track again – first-time blinkers might help work the magic – then he can outrun the 16s and get very competitive from a decent draw in stall 13....
In the Old Borough Cup at Haydock (3.35) I’m backing TIME TO STUDY at the general 11s....
He seems to have been around for a long time, but he’s still only 5 and when he gets his conditions he is a well above average stayer....
He got his conditions in France last month. On soft ground he bounced back to form with a win....
Despite that foreign foray, he runs off 93 tomorrow and Williams has booked apprentice jockey Cieren Fallon who takes off another 5lbs....
If this horse, rated 108 as recently as last summer, isn’t weighted sufficiently well to put produce a big performance tomorrow – in conditions he should enjoy – then I don’t know when he will be....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Cunard (Ascot @ 2.45).
In the Old Borough Cup (Haydock @ 3.35).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Enjoy the racing tomorrow....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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