Friday, 13th September 2019
What a crappy card at Doncaster tomorrow. An 8-runner St Leger and a bunch of supporting races serving up fields of 6, 5, 5, 5 and 3 runners....
St Leger day should be a big day. But how do you attract the throng to the track with that kind of fare?
They might show up anyway. But I say thank God for the TV and the Portland. Best to stay home, sit and watch the one decent race in the front room before getting out for a couple of hours in the garden....
It’s that time of the week when I put on the tin hat, stick my head above the parapet and tell you what I’m backing this weekend. And I’ll get to that in a moment.
But first....
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here’s what my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
Kevin Ryan won this race three times with Halmahera and has repeatedly hit the woodwork since. His Bielsa is race favourite tomorrow. The 4yo is unbeaten in three goes on the turf flat, but is he experienced enough for a race of this nature? And can he do it at this level first time up? He’ll emerge from stall 17....
If there are Doncaster horses in the race then William Haggas’s Muthmir is one of them. He’s two from two on Town Moore having won his maiden at the track in 2013 before winning this race in 2014 off a mark of 100. He runs off the same mark tomorrow having dropped 5lbs for just 4 runs this term. He’s a relatively fresh horse for September but he is 9-years-old now and the oldest horse in the race. Can he roll back the years under Dane O’Neill?
David C Griffiths has lost with his last 50 runners at the track and runs Teruntum Star for the first time since inheriting him from Kevin Ryan. First time up with inherited horses Griffiths is 6 from 74 – which is about par. The horse is rated 6lbs lower than when winning the Coral Sprint Trophy at York in 2017. Can the 40/1 rag run a big one? The 7yo is certainly starting from a favoured berth in stall 15. The horses drawn in the high third have won 10 of the last 17 renewals....
Donnacha O’Brien rides Gunmetal for David Barron. Inspired thinking or just a case of booking whoever happens to be spare? With not too many jockeys at the track tomorrow and Gunmetal apparently without an assigned rider until late in the day yesterday, I’d be betting on the latter scenario. But you never know, and no rider in tomorrow’s race has been in better form than O’Brien over the last fortnight....
EMBOUR has won three times this term for the in-form Richard Hannon – with multiple creditable performances on top of that – and he might not be finished just yet on a mark of 96....
He’s seen a bit of money in the market for his last two runs. And I was particularly taken with his effort last time over the fast 5f at Sandown where another half a furlong would certainly have seen him get closer to the winner....
I’m not sure he had the perfect race. He was a bit keen and he was impeded early-on. He’s been very consistent and there’s no reason he can’t put in another big run tomorrow on ground sure to suit under Pat Dobbs who is no stranger to the horse. He’ll need to improve a bit for the trip and the 16s is fair enough in that context....
I want to be two-against-the-field here and COPPER KNIGHT looks big to me at 20s....
He’s been running well all season – winning and going close in good handicaps early-doors before switching to Listed and Group company in the second half of the season and not disgracing himself at all....
He’s back to handicap level tomorrow on a mark of 106 that consigns him to top weight. But trainer Tim Easterby mitigates that with the use of a first-time claimer. Danny Redmond takes off 5lbs....
The 5yo has gone close a couple of times this term in handicaps off 105. The claim puts him right in the mix and he gets the fast ground he needs. The 20s is generous in my book....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Portland Handicap (1.50 @ Doncaster)….
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
We’ll be looking ahead to next weekend’s quality action at Ayr and Newbury....
And there will be lots of other good stuff besides....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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