Friday, 20th September 2019
Three big sprint handicaps to target this weekend....
All of them are run up at Ayr....
25 go at it in the Bronze Cup later today (3.45)....
Then tomorrow, similar big-fields will contest the Silver Cup (2.40) and the Gold Cup (3.50)....
When you’re dealing with so many runners, the one thing you are always going to run short of is time....
So, let’s get straight down to it....
Just a quick reminder that this column never sets out to find the winner....
Instead we seek out horses that can get a lot more competitive than the market believes....
We hope to do the job well enough that the winners look after themselves over time....
John Quinn’s CAPTAIN JAMESON is a nice price at 18s for this afternoon’s Bronze Cup at 3.45....
If he’s on-song and primed to go (and I have no reason to believe that he isn’t) then he is entitled to go very close off a mark of 82....
In October just last year, the 4yo won a nice handicap at York off that very mark....
He hasn’t managed to capture the same heights since. But he has tumbled back down the official ratings from 89 (across 7 subsequent races) since....
The rating is not everything when it comes to handicaps. But it is the biggest thing....
A horse rated too high cannot and will not win. A horse rated lower than his true level is always dangerous....
Captain Jameson ticks the latter box at a price. With the track drying out all the time, the underfoot conditions are going to be in his favour. He is weighted to run a big one....
People sometimes ask how it is that I frequently oppose Watch List horses in the races I target....
There’s usually a good reason. In tomorrow’s Silver Cup at Ayr at 2.40 I’ll be opposing Show Stealer on account of her price....
I only put her on my Watch List yesterday. And I stand by my view that she has the potential to progress for more opportunities in a big field....
But I don’t want to back her in a 25-runner field at a single-figure price or 10s. If the price isn’t there, I prefer to look elsewhere....
One I’m going to play at the prices is Tim Easterby’s FLYING PURSUIT at 33s....
He’s not been on the best run. But the upside of that is he is down to a mark of just 85....
And he’ll be running at a track tomorrow on which he’s produced multiple good performances in the past – off higher marks too....
Last year he was 3rd in the Gold Cup off 100 so if he fires tomorrow with cheekpieces and tongue tie tried in combination for the first time then he goes close under Rachael Richardson....
The other one I want to be on in this is the in-form James Tate trained ROYAL RESIDENCE with P J McDonald up at 14s....
I believe a mark of 91 is within his compass and whilst his 2nd place finish in last seasons Bronze Cup might have been put down at the time (at least to some extent) to heavy ground, I reckon this horse has proved this summer that he can act just fine on a sounder surface. He can go well again at the track this time around....
Horses that are 50s are that price for a reason....
The Keith Dalgleish trained SOLDIER’S MINUTE is no exception....
He’s that price for tomorrow’s Gold Cup at 3.50 because he’s put in three successive down-the-field performances with only the last of those – when he lost a fore shoe – easily overlooked....
But I can’t help swinging the bat at the 4yo at the price....
As he showed at York in May when winning the Infinity Tyres in Group-class-fashion, this horse is a quality act on his day....
He went up to 100 for that performance, now he’s down the ratings to a mark of 96....
Having had a decent break, sporting a first-time hood and in a decent stall, he could well prove a sight better than his big odds suggest....
But the key thing for me is the return of Joe Fanning to duties in the saddle. He was on the horse for that York win and a win at Kempton on the All Weather back in March. The pair get on well and Fanning is just the variable to spark a renaissance tomorrow....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies today and tomorrow afternoon…. In the Bronze Cup (Friday 3.45 @ Ayr).
In the Silver Cup (Saturday 2.40 @ Ayr).
In the Gold Cup (Saturday 3.50 @ Ayr).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
