Friday, 27th September 2019
How do you pick the winner of a 33-runner handicap up a 9f straight?
God knows. But that’s the job a lot of punters will be settling down to this evening with the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket set to go off at 3.40 tomorrow afternoon....
It’s not a job I give much mind to myself. My way of operating is to stick to finding horses trading at prices which underestimate their true chances of getting competitive....
If I do that job well enough, the winners will look after themselves over the long term....
Of course, losing spells are the inevitable downside. Sometimes long ones – as long-term readers will be fully aware....
But – because I am placing bets at big prices – I am always in the game. When I get paid out, I get paid out well....
A couple of winners at nice prices and losing spells are reversed. One or two more and I am soon be in front again....
The market has a bunch of the 3yos up at the top of the betting this morning....
Fair enough. The 3yos are the ones with most natural progression under their respective belts....
They’re the ones with the eye-catching strike rates – the ones that haven’t yet made losing a habit....
Hughie Morrison’s Le Don De Vie makes for an obvious favourite. He’s just 6 runs into his turf career and he’s already won a couple of decent races at Epsom and Goodwood. He’s a horse full of promise. But delivery is not always straightforward....
One thing you can say with absolute certainty is that he’s never seen a field this size before or anything like it....
Of course, he might handle the challenge with aplomb. But would you want to be backing him at 8s to do so with 32-rivals to beat? Not me, guv....
You can pick holes in all the short-priced 3yos. They are open to progression. But they also have things to prove. They might well come good on the day. But you really do take your chances with minimal upside if you bet them at a short price....
For me it’s a no-brainer. I dismiss the shorties summarily. They’re of no interest to me. I’m a contrarian. I stand against the market come what may....
My default strategy is to search for an overlooked horse at a nice price and to take my chances that way. No more. No less....
I’ll get to my selections shortly. First – what I’ll be monitoring in the Cambridgeshire....
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here’s what my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
Ryan Moore has been booked for the ride on Morrison’s Le Don De Vie. And it’s a significant booking. Morrison and Moore don’t get together too often. They’ve combined just 5 times since the start of 2018. But they won on three of those occasions – and in decent enough races too. The booking is another factor in the 3yo’s short price. Can Morrison and Moore pull it off again? Who knows? But if you want to track horse and rider, they will emerge from stall 14....
Mordin was 2nd in last season’s renewal for Simon Crisford off a mark of 95. It is tougher for him this time around off a mark of 104. But Crisford is doing what he can for the horse by booking 7lb claimer Marco Ghiani for the ride. What makes the booking even more interesting is that Ghiani was given a sighter on the horse last time out at Sandown. They were 5th of 9 And beaten just under 4-lengths. Was that race a component part of a more serious wider plan? They run out of stall 28....
Lord North is another one of the 3yos. He comes out of John Gosden’s yard and nobody with a runner in tomorrow’s race has been in the same kind of purple patch form as Gosden over the last fortnight. Franke Dettori comes in for a first- time ride on the horse. But the horse has only raced three times competitively on turf and just 4 times overall. Does he have the experience required for a race of this nature. Lightly raced horses have won the Cambridgeshire but none so lightly raced as this over the last 17 years (as far back as my records go). They start from stall 29....
Back in 2003, I had a few quid on Chivalry at big ante-post prices for this race. He won for Sir Mark Prescott despite being off the track for 343 days. If there’s a big training performance on the cards tomorrow it could be Saeed Bin Suroor with top weight Dubai Horizon – a classy handicapper whose been off the track for 373 days. Cieran Fallon is an interesting booking and takes off 3lb. The up and coming jockey has already won an Old Borough Cup and a Portland this term Has Bin Suroor produced a horse on which he can win this. They start from stall 26....
I like the booking of Jamie Spencer on Jedd O’Keefe’s JAZEEL – and I like the price about the horse. He can be backed at 16s generally and I’m taking that....
The 4yo won last year’s Silver Cambridgeshire over course and distance – prevailing by a neck after coming late....
That was off 84 and a 13lb rise to tomorrow’s mark of 97 might seem like a tall order....
But following a gelding operation and a switch from Mick Channon’s yard to Jedd O’Keefe’s, Jazeel has continued to progress and has proved competitive....
He will need a career best, but so will plenty of others and for me he’s the perfect ride for big-field hold-up-ride specialist Jamie Spencer....
I suspect the horse has been aimed at this specific race all season. He was given a break at the end of the July and has had just one run since....
I expect him to tun up in prime condition and give a good account of himself. There are no certainties in this kind of race but O’Keefe and Spencer have form in combination....
They’ve teamed-up 11 times since the start of 2018 and won on 3 occasions. That’s an encouraging stat....
So too is the stat relating to Spencer’s current form. He’s 8 wins from 28 rides over the last fortnight and will be feeling confident....
At a bigger price, I will be backing the Brian Meehan trained PETRUS at 28s....
He didn’t run his race at York last time. But he’d had a break and I reckon this race is the real target....
First time out this term he won the Spring Cup at Doncaster off 91 before following up in a 31k handicap at Bath off 97. He goes off 99 tomorrow and is not weighted out of it....
Tom Marquand gets the ride for the first time since that Doncaster win in March. I see that as a positive and I reckon the 4yo can put that York run behind him....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Cambridgeshire (3.40 @ Newmarket).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Enjoy the race tomorrow....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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