Friday, 4th October 2019
John Gosden is at it again....
Last weekend he sent out the lightly-raced 3yo Lord North in the Cambridgeshire and he proved to be a Group horse – putting the big handicap field to the sword despite his inexperience....
This weekend Gosden runs 3yo Casanova in the Challenge Cup at Ascot....
He’s equally inexperienced on the turf and whilst he hasn’t hit the levels Lord North had ahead of last week’s race, he is promising in his own right....
He turns out tomorrow off back-to-back wins at Wolverhampton and Sandown and is up towards the top of the early betting at a generally available 7s.
There’s no Frankie factor to drive the Saturday money. Andrea Atzeni takes the ride....
He has no great record of riding or performing for Gosden. But he is a top talent and no jockey riding in tomorrow’s race has won more races at Ascot over the last five years....
Jamie Osborne’s Raising Sand is the ante-post jolly – as short as 4s and no bigger than 5s....
It’s no surprise he’s so popular in the betting. He’s got a cracking record at Ascot and has recorded four wins and plenty of places at the place – earning more than a quarter of a million quid for connections in the process....
We’re not talking about wins in egg and spoon races. The 7yo won this race last season (after placing in 2017) and earlier this term he won the International (after placing in the Victoria Cup).
He’s a proper course and distance horse. But an official rating of 109 must be an issue?
Not too many horses run in handicaps off that mark. They can win when doing so. But the record could hardly be described as prolific....
The last 183 horses to run in a turf handicap off that mark or higher produced just 7 wins between them....
Osborne might have gone down the claiming route to take weight off the horse’s back. But he has stuck with Nicola Currie who has enjoyed some big days on the horse....
It isn’t that Raising Sand can’t build on his ascot record and win again. It is just that I wouldn’t want to be backing him in a big-field handicap at his price....
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here’s what my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
Ripp Orf (2nd in this last year off a pound higher) is another horse with a cracking course and distance record. Most of his success at the track has come under Hayley Turner and Jason Watson. Tomorrow Gerald Mosse (2 wins from his last 73 rides at the track) takes the ride. Will the absence of the tried and trusted make a difference? Or will the 5yo prove equally effective?
Summerghand has been a model of consistency for David O’Meara this term – showing up prominently in multiple big handicaps without managing to win one. Tomorrow he steps up to this trip for the first time. O’Meara has five horses in the race. Principal jockey Danny Tudhope has opted to ride this one. Is the extra yardage what he needs or will he run out of puff late-on?
John Gosden is rarely out of form and has produced 10 winners over the last fortnight. The other form man is Saeed Bin Suroor. He is 8 wins from 25 runners over the same period. He runs Silver Line and Bedouin’s Story tomorrow afternoon. This is plan B for the last-named after the horse was withdrawn from last week’s Cambridgeshire. That was over 9f, this is over a stiff 7f. Might the soft ground bring his stamina into play? He certainly handles a soft surface.
It could be a funny race. There’s not a lot of pace on. The high half of the draw has had the best of it in these big-field 7f handicaps at Ascot over the last 5-years – we had a look at the numbers on Tuesday. Will the trend hold out this time around?
The one that appeals to me as a betting prospect at the prices is BATTERED at 14s....
Previously with William Haggas and now with Ralph Beckett, the 5yo hasn’t exactly been over-raced this term with just two racetrack appearances since February....
The latest of those was last weekend at Newmarket where the horse put in a promising run in 4th beaten just a length in a C2 handicap. That’s form he can build on....
The soft ground tomorrow is certainly up his street. His last two wins came on cut. And one thing I really like is the booking of Silvestre De Sousa in the saddle....
The pair have enjoyed a bit of success together in the past when the horse was with Haggas and I think there’s some significance in Beckett turning to the same rider now....
A rating 0f 96 remains a business rating for this horse and I like the price about him. I reckon he’s undervalued....
It’s all about odds-on shot Enable in Sunday’s Arc at Longchamp....
No racing fan would begrudge the mare in a million her third Arc on the bounce. But at the price, this punter simply must take her on....
Her short quote creates a little value further down the list and the one I’m going to go with is Charlie Appleby’s GHAIYYATH who can still be backed at 12s this morning in the ante-post race market....
His last time out demolition job on a decent field in Germany earned him a Racing Post rating of 128. That’s just a pound below what Enable has achieved at her best and a double-figure quote surely underplays him....
Fore sure, Enable gets the mare’s allowance on Sunday. And there’s a lot of talk about the Ghaiyyath’s Baden-Baden performance being a fluke....
But he did the job, he did it well, he improved a tonne for the step-up to 12f and he could have plenty more progression in him yet – particularly on soft ground....
I just think the price is a bit bigger than it should be....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Challenge Cup (3.10 @ Ascot).
In the Arc de Triomphe (Sunday, 3.05 @ Longchamp).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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