Friday, 11th October 2019
A 5/1 favourite in a 31-runner handicap....
That’s tomorrow’s Cesarewitch at Newmarket (4.10)....
Willie Mullins and Frankie Dettori team-up on Buildmeupbuttercup – 2nd in the Ascot Cup, 2nd in an £80k handicap at Leopardstown and a maiden winner in-between....
He’s due to go up to 98. Tomorrow he gets to run off 94. Who knows how much he might have in hand on the handicapper?
We would none of us be surprised if the 5yo went in....
Lord North justified short odds in the Cambridgeshire just a fortnight ago. We’ve seen it a few times....
But, for me at least, the price demands to be opposed....
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here’s what my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
One too many? Sir Mark Prescott’s Land Of Oz is fancied under a penalty. Fast-progressing, he’s won of his last seven – including the trial for this race. He’s proven his stamina, he’s 2lb well in and he carries bottom-weight. Prescott persuaded owners of other horses he’d entered to withdraw so that Land Of Oz got in. But is this race too many? It will be the 3yo’s eighth assignment since mid-July. And he’ll have to overcome a wide draw in stall 30....
Up against a strong stat – Andrew Balding’s 3yo Ranch Hand is another at the top-end of the betting. He’s 3 from 5 and won a £60k handicap at Haydock last time. That was over 14f – the furthest the horse has run to date. Balding reckons he’ll stay. And he might. But backers are taking on a strong race-trend. Sixteen of the last seventeen Cesarewitch winners had already won over 2m+....
Highs and lows – just four of the last 17 renewals were won by horses starting from a stall higher than 19. It can be done – but low side would be the preference. Buildmeupbuttercup is in stall 21. It’s not high enough to cause much concern. Dettori won in 2011 on Never Can Tell from all the way out in stall 36 – making all. This one will be looking to hit the front later....
In a race like this I want two running for me....
First-up, I’m backing MR EVEREST at the general 16s....
Tony Martin has a track record of producing a competitive horse for this race. He’s won it once and he’s produced five additional top-5 finishes. That’s from a dozen runners in total....
This one was third in last year’s Irish Cesarewitch at Navan off a mark of 83 before winning a £50k handicap at Naas off 82. The lightly-raced 6yo runs off 86 tomorrow and it will be no surprise to see him prove better than that....
He’s not been over-busy this summer. He ran down the field in a flat handicap at Galway when there was no pace on, won a maiden hurdle at the same track a few nights later and then finished 7th in a handicap hurdle at Listowel beaten just 4.25 lengths over 2-miles under a hands and heels finish....
He’s been prepared for autumn targets and I fancy him to run a race at a price tomorrow out of stall 8....
The other one I’m backing is STRATUM at 20s....
He was well-fancied for the Ebor last year and for last year’s edition of this race – but he failed to live up to his billing on both occasions. He endured a nightmare passage and was badly hampered at York and was probably too keen early doors at Newmarket....
He’s had mixed fortunes since on turf and over hurdles. But he won for the first time on the flat for a while in August and he’s had another outing over hurdles since....
He strikes me as a horse on the bounce-back. I just think he’s potentially underrated and somewhat overpriced....
In the Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap up at York (3.50) I am backing SUMMERGHAND at the general 12s....
He’s been remarkably consistent this term – placing in multiple big handicaps over 6f and running well in 4th on his first go at 7f last week at York....
He’s proved adept at handling softer underfoot conditions and this soft ground and a return to 6f might just prove the winning combination....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Cesarewitch Stakes (4.10 @ Newmarket).
In the Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (3.50 @ York).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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