Wednesday, 16th October 2019
We get one last big handicap up the Ascot straight on Saturday before the stumps are pulled on the British flat season....
A big field is sure to go to post for the Balmoral Handicap over the mile trip – the race that closes the Champions Day card.....
As of this morning, 49 horses retain entries. On Saturday afternoon, a maximum of 20 will go to post on ground that is currently described as heavy....
Plenty of trainers have already gone to the trouble of booking jockeys – at least provisionally....
One interesting name among them is Jamie Spencer. David Barron has him down to ride Clon Coulis....
At number 17 on the list, the 5yo is guaranteed a run. And the underfoot conditions might suit him better than most. He certainly has form on soft....
The big surprise for me is that if the horse does run and Spencer does ride, it will only be Spencer’s fifth go in a big handicap up the Ascot straight this term – and his first since the Royal meeting in June where he placed twice from four handicap rides up the straight (one of those placers was Clon Coulis – supported on the day from a betting perspective by this column).
That dearth of such rides is incredible (at least it is to me) when you consider Spencer’s record in such races at Ascot down the years....
See the table below for details – it highlights Spencer’s 7-season record in straight handicaps at Ascot with 15 or more runners going to post at class 4 or better....
Let me put those figures into context....
Spencer is the King of the big-field straight handicaps at Ascot. Make no mistake about that....
Nobody else gets close – in terms of sheer volume of wins and places or in terms of overall consistency....
And a place strike rate of 36% in races where you’ve got up to 30 runners going at it hell-for-leather is nothing short of exceptional over such a sustained period....
The NM column – which denotes near-misses in positions just outside the frame in 4th 5th or 6th – illustrates how close Spencer’s record is to being even better still. He’s simply head-and-shoulders above the rest of his weighing room compatriots when it comes to handicaps up the straight at Ascot....
He might mess a few rides up with his habitual come-from-the-back style of riding such races. But other times, when he pulls it off, he is nothing short of sublime – a master of timing who regularly ensures his mount achieves the best placing possible....
All that said, Spencer hasn’t had the rides on the straight strip at Ascot this term....
Maybe the logistics of riding at one meeting or another have conspired against him. Maybe he is out of vogue. Maybe trainers overlook his skills on the straight strip. Maybe they see his success as a statistical anomaly....
I don’t know. All I can tell you is that I’m surprised he hasn’t ridden more at Ascot on the straight this term. And that he would be riding mine if I had one....
In case you missed it....Hollie Doyle is down to ride Archie Watson’s Glen Shiel in Saturday’s Balmoral.... Female First recently published an article covering a typical day in her life.... It provides interesting insight into just what it means to ride horses for a living. Read it here.... |
If you’re lucky in your professional life, you have times when you have a few quality people around you – capable and experienced people who know the job and consistently perform and produce at a high level....
And – assuming you’ve got the sense you were born with – you take the time to watch, study and observe those people....
.... How they work, how they operate, how they prepare, how they respond, how they adapt, how they learn, how they execute, how they set out their stall, how they survive, how they thrive....
In short, you learn your craft and your approach – or at least a part of it – from them....
It doesn’t matter if it’s plumbing, computer programming, writing, painting and decorating or frying burgers. We learn most and most quickly from those that went before us....
The alternative is to waste great resources and good opportunities to learn. At least that’s the way I see it....
I wonder is anybody in the weighing room learning from Jamie Spencer about how to ride the straight at Ascot to best effect....
I’m not sure they are. But they should be. And if I was coaching a young jockey I would be telling him to study Spencer up the straight at Ascot as though his life depended on it....
In his absence on the straight strip at Ascot in the big field handicaps this term, it is probably fair to say that old-hand Adam Kirby has done best of all....
He turns 30 in a couple of days and he is no callow youth looking to bigger and better men for instruction....
But none of us know it all. We never stop learning and we can always improve. The moment we think we can’t, the gig is up....
Kirby will be getting better with experience and this season at Ascot his record compares with anybody’s. See the table below for details....
The only other rider to ride a brace of qualifying winners is Andrea Atzeni – and he did it on one horse, Cape Byron, who has gone on to prove himself Group class....
Nicola Currie is another rider who has had a good season on the Ascot strip with her seven qualifying rides producing a win and three places. But the win and two of those places were courtesy of one horse – track specialist, Raising Sand....
Hayley Turner rides Ascot’s straight well. Two of her 27 rides since 2012 won, another four placed and another four can be considered near misses. But Ripp Orf – another course specialist – has played a big part in that haul.
A good horse – the right horse – clearly helps. And it is something worth bearing in mind ahead of Saturday....
Nobody stands out this term as the heir to Spencer’s throne at the end of the Ascot straight....
Maybe Adam Kirby can at least enhance his claims on Saturday. He is booked to ride Escobar who is on a good run for David O’Meara and was second in the race off 3lb lower last year....
If there’s one Balmoral booking that would tweak my antenna it would be that of 7lb claimer Marco Ghiani....
He’s come into focus during the second part of the season and he’s had five goes in big-field straight handicaps at Ascot since the start of September....
He won for principal patron Stuart Williams on Equitation in a 16-runner class 4 over 6f at the start of September and then a fortnight ago he was 2nd for Henry Candy on Greenside in the Challenge Cup....
Ghiani is a noteworthy apprentice. His 7lb claim is clearly a big advantage to the right horse in a big handicap....
Most importantly, it hasn’t taken him long to figure out how to ride the Ascot straight to good effect. And he will be sure to improve for more experience on it....
It’s a good mix of credential, skillset and promise. If he gets on one at the weekend, then I will be interested. If he doesn’t, there is always next term when I expect Ghiani to be a big improver....
An interesting comment regarding Saturday’s Cesarewitch....
SU writes in to say this....
‘I guess we only have ourselves to blame for being duped by what now seems to be a classic Mullins sting. For weeks we were all thinking about the booking of Frankie Dettori on the Willie Mullins favourite or near favourite for the Newmarket Cesarewitch that we simply forgot or overlooked the fact that Willie is the most imperious judge of horse flesh and never afraid of slipping one under the radar. Looking back at the card now I can't believe I didn't have a small each way interest in Stratum. The signs were all there!!’
Nick responds: Fortunately – and I know it’s a bit of a novelty this term – I read the signs. Before the race Mullins pretty much wrote the horse off in his TV interview. But the Listowel performance was a sight better than it read on paper – and Mullins acknowledged the fact afterwards. I’m sure the result didn’t come as a complete surprise....
Got an opinion? Have you something to say? Want to share? Do it here. I’ll publish the pick of the crop....
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
