Friday, 18th October 2019
It is Champions Day tomorrow at Ascot and the mainstream racing media will be heavily focused on the big Group races....
But here at ATC, the big-field class 2 handicaps are our beat and it is the Balmoral Handicap over the mile at 4.40 that absorbs my attention....
There’s been a lot of talk about running the Group races that go around a bend on the hurdles track – for a bit of better ground....
Fair enough. But it won’t alter things for us. Our race is up the straight and the going on there is going to be very soft at best....
The race provides us with another opportunity to see Lord North – John Gosden’s very progressive 3yo – in another handicap. I suspect it will be his last for a while....
Last time he won the 30-runner Cambridgeshire off a mark of 98 in the manner of a Group animal – sent off the 9/2 favourite....
Tomorrow he drops back to the mile, runs off a 12lb higher mark and must deal with the softest surface he’s encountered to date....
The bottom line is that this race represents a tougher task. Not many horses win tough handicaps off a mark of 110. And fewer do it on a testing surface....
But the market – or at least the layers – fancy the 3yo’s chances. He tops the ante-post market this morning at prices no better than 4s....
Is it impossible for him to win? No.
Will he win? Who knows? Not me.
Would I want to back him to do it at the price? No thanks....
I am a contrarian punter. I seek horses that can outrun the market’s assessment on the day. Lord North’s short price helps in that regard. It means bigger prices about ‘live’ contenders further down the list....
I’ve got my own ideas. I’ll get to those shortly. First, a word on other issues....
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here’s what my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
Draw & pace – The last five winners were all drawn in stall 10 or lower. There’s no obvious pace-setter in the race but plenty of horses that like to race prominently are drawn on the low side. For pace punter, that looks like the place to be to me. I expect the race to unfold on that side of the track.
Jamie Spencer – he’s the King of the straight handicaps at Ascot and looks to be very sweetly berthed in stall 1. I reckon he’ll drop in and look to come late on with Clon Coulis. He’ll certainly get plenty of cover and the 5yo is one of those that really won’t mind the soft surface.
Late booking – Jason Watson gave Stratum a cracking ride for us in last week’s Cesarewitch. This week he rides Saltonstall for Adrian McGuinness. It was the last booking to be made in the race and I wonder if it was a case of McGuinness seeking out the right man for the job or just a case of finding someone who hadn’t already got a ride in the race. Time will tell. But if Watson is a spare, he’s a damn good one.
Finally? Escobar has been in good heart for David O’Meara all season – going in just once at York. He almost went in here in this race last year off – finishing 2nd off 102. He goes again this time off 105. Adam Kirby – on the horse last year and 3rd last time on him in the Challenge Cup – is in the saddle again. One better? Let’s see. Follow their progress. They come out of stall 21....
David Barron’s pair – Kynren and Clon Coulis – have both got massive chances with track and ground right up their respective streets....
But the market has found them at 8s and 10s. They’re too short for my tastes. I prefer to look a little further down the list for options at a price....
Ralph Beckett’s string is holding its form well at this late stage of the season and MITCHUM SWAGGER is a proven soft-ground performer who could easily out-run odds of 25s tomorrow afternoon....
He’s only had one run since Royal Ascot. That came at Redcar a fortnight back. He got beaten 3-lengths over 7f on heavy ground. He’ll like the mile better and he will certainly appreciate all the recent rain....
He looks very much like one saved for a big tilt at an autumn prize and I expect him to be spot on for a big run....
The other one I want to be with is Richard Fahey’s COOLAGH FOREST at 16s....
His last two wins have come at 10f but he’s won over 8f, he’s won on soft and on tomorrow’s surface the mile could feel like a mile and a quarter. It’s not a day for underestimating stamina....
The 3yo is plenty progressive. He’s improved markedly over the last few weeks. And the bottom line is that I reckon he’s still got a bit in hand on his mark of 102. At the price I’m prepared to back my judgment....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Balmoral Handicap (4.40 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
More comment in the mailbag stemming from last week’s Cesarewitch. JL writes-in with details of how he seeks out a bit more value in the big handicaps....
‘I often look at the bet365 - enhanced e/w prices. Stratum was 60/1 - 2 places only 1/4 odds. It’s something I do look at for extra value - I think I back a lot of 2nds but it’s been paying its way over the past few months and especially Saturday.’
Nick responds – I must confess that this market had passed me by. I stick mainly to the exchanges. But it shows that plenty of readers play the ATC selections in many varied and creative ways. I’ve had plenty of 2nds myself over the years. So much so, I developed a phobia (joke). Read about it here....
GW gets in touch too. He’s an exchange man, like me....
‘I got odds of 46 at Matchbook on my mobile phone. Only small stakes of £2.50. I also back your selections each way as I find that way suits my style of betting. All the exchanges are now 2% commission and with the better odds for the winners it’s my preferred way even though I’m losing out on better place terms. But, as I’m restricted at all the books to stakes even smaller than £2.50, and no best odds for the likes of me, it means the exchanges are the only option....’
Nick responds: Nobody restricts bets on an exchange as punters bet against each other rather than with a ‘middleman’ bookmaker. So, if you ever come across some ‘pro’ punter bleating about not being able to get on, you know you’re dealing with a either a liar or a guy who is so far behind the times he is probably wearing a string vest....
Got an opinion? Have you something to say? Have you something to add? Want to share? Do it here. I’ll publish the pick of the crop....
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
We’ll be doing a bit of prep for the forthcoming NH season – among other things....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
