Friday, 25th October 2019
The summer is behind us now and we’re back over the jumps this weekend at Cheltenham....
It’s early-doors. There not much form in the book. Yards are yet to build up a head of steam. Plans are developing. Many horses will be well-short of full fitness....
In other words, It’s a weekend that you could sit-out. And I suspect many will....
I thought about it myself....
But then I had a look and couldn’t resist a swing of the bat at one....
There’s plenty of rain forecast over Cheltenham....
Underfoot conditions described this afternoon as good to soft (good in places) are liable to change before the off in tomorrow’s C2 ‘Matchbook Betting Exchange’ Handicap Chase at 2.00....
No matter. Cut won’t bother THE CONDITIONAL who I think is overpriced at prices between 20s and 50s....
He’s still a novice but he has some experience and gave a promising account of himself when stepped up to a decent pot in a first-time handicap at Naas in March – up against a decent-sized field....
That was for Martin Hassett. He’s changed hands since and moved to David Bridgewater’s yard....
He had a run in first-time cheekpieces at Worcester last month in a novice event on soft ground. He stuck to his job well enough and it will have brought him forward....
The headgear is left off tomorrow. Connections are tweaking. That could be a positive. Or a negative. Time will tell....
But there’s enough in the price to tempt me in. The 7yo’s performance in that Nass handicap last March wasn’t unexpected. There was money for him. He was backed into 5/1 second favourite on the day. He was fancied....
It didn’t quite pan out for. But the horse certainly didn’t bomb-out either. And he wasn’t fazed at the level. My impression is that this horse will step on from his current mark of 131. But when?
He’s got it to do tomorrow first-time-up at Cheltenham against a clutch of battle-hardened rivals. That’s for sure....
But I think he can run a bigger race than the big price suggests. And that’s the green light for me....
The horse is generally 20s. But bet365 and Racebets are up at 50s, Skybet at 33s and William Hill at 25s....
I don’t know how long some of that will last. Move quick....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the ‘Matchbook Betting Exchange’ Handicap Chase (2.00 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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