Wednesday, 30th October 2019
It is Charlie Hall Chase weekend at Wetherby and the G2 feature offers an early opportunity to set eyes on one or two horses destined to play a part in some of the most valuable and prestigious staying chases run across the course of the season.
But from a betting perspective – at least from my perspective – Ascot is where it’s at this weekend….
The principal target race for me is the Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase over the 3-mile trip....
More years than not we get a decent-sized field going to post for this one. And that’s what I’m looking for....
The big-field handicpas are not easy puzzles to solve – either for backer or layer....
But they are exactly the type of race where, if you’re prepared to do the digging, you can unearth a live contender trading at a price that underplays its chances – and that’s the game we seek to play at ATC….
Ultimately, every bet I place is based on an assessment of individual horses....
Each horse is different. Each has its own unique quirks and characteristics. Each horse is in a specific time and place on the curve....
And each horse must be taken on a case-by-case basis within the context of the individual race, the conditions the race presents and the unique set of circumstances surrounding it....
Stats are a useful and informative starting point – an initial route into a race. That’s how I use the stats....
The statistical record can tell you a great deal about the type of horse that tends to win a specific contest. It can point you to horses of interest. But there are limits to what the stats can achieve....
The statistical record can tell you that younger horses have a far better record in a specific race than older horses. Or that horses that have met a specific form-based yardstick are traditionally of most interest. But beyond that the race-stats are silent....
But the record can’t tell you if an individual horse is fit. Or that it will go on the ground. Or that it isn’t suited to a specific track. Or that its yard is out of form....
The stats act as a guide. They can offer clues and pointers on which you can base a deeper investigation into a specific horse. They are a starting point – as opposed to an out-and-out selection tool....
Ultimately, wherever the stats point you must come back to the individual horses....
There is no getting away from that – unless you are happy to bet mechanically (and there’s nothing wrong with that if that’s the way you choose to play)....
I don’t look at these stats as a winning formula – a case of A+B+C+D+E = winner. The game is a little more complex and idiosyncratic than that.
Instead, I approach the stats merely as another piece in the information puzzle – one that might point me to a group of horses that is worthy of further investigation....
So, with all that in mind let’s look at some of the key stats produced by the last 13 editions of the Sodexo Gold Cup Chase....
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The first stat that stands out in the 13-year record is Nicky Henderson’s performance with runners making their seasonal debut in the race....
That group of 5 horses produced a win (Roberto Goldback in 2012) and 2 places (Roberto Goldback and Triolo D’Alene – both in the 2013 renewal).
On The Blind Side could be a qualifier this year. One from three over fences, he’d be running in a chase handicap for the first time off 149....
Paul Nicholls has never managed to win this race. It’s one of the very few valuable handicap chases where he’s drawn a blank. He’s gone close – placing with 9 of his 20 participants – but, so far, no cigar....
You’d imagine Nicholls will want to put that right. And given that his runners are as straight as any out there right now – and given that race-fitness is going to be a key factor with so many horses coming into the race without a seasonal run – you’d have to think he’s got solid claims on doing it....
Adrien Du Pont is one possible. The 7yo is 2 from 11 over fences and sits on a mark of 148 – 2lb below a peak of 151. Last time out he was seen finishing down the field in the Topham at Aintree in April. Prior to that he’d won a good 3-mile handicap at Kempton over Christmas. He seems happiest going right-handed, so Ascot will suit. He was 4th of the nine that ran in this last year and seemed to need the run that time....
Black Corton is the other possible for the yard. He’s in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby too. On a mark of 163, he’ll give weight all around in the Sodexo. I can’t imagine this is the preferred option. But he did run a big race under a big weight at Galway when last seen. I’d suggest he might just prefer going right to going left too. In the end, he will probably go where the ground is best. Wherever he goes, look out for different tactics. Connections are on about racing a little more prominently with him. Bryony Frost reckons he needs to bowl on in his races....
Price – price is the primary consideration of this column – that goes without saying....
In an ideal world I want to be backing what I consider to be live contenders at big prices. But the statistical record does urge some caution....
Just one winner of the Sodexo justified favouritism over the last 13-years, but eleven of those 13 winners were sent off at 12s or shorter. And very few runners sent off at big prices – 16s or bigger – have gone on to hit the frame....
The bottom-line? Value-seekers must tread carefully....
Weight – Only one horse has managed to win more than 11-03 in the last 13-years. That was Gary Moore’s Traffic Fluide last year.
But it should be noted that only nine went to post for last season’s edition (only 5 carried less than 11-03) – and we usually get a bigger field than that.
Eight of the thirteen winners carried less than 11-00 to victory. Fifteen of the 30 placers over the period also carried less than 11-00....
Fitness – No doubt plenty of punters will look to play the early-season fitness angle and look closely at horses that have already had a blow on the track.
Fair enough, I get it. But the stats don’t wholly frank the logic.
Six of the last 13 winners of the race and 20 of the 30 placed horses over that period were making their seasonal debuts....
Experience – the more lightly-raced and progressive types have had the whip-hand over the last thirteen years. Eight of the winners had run no more than 10 times over fences....
Stats rarely point you to a single horse that subsequently goes on to win the race. If that were the case, we’d all be living like kings and the bookmakers would be out of business....
The best the stats can do is direct you to horses – preferably trading at a good price – which are worthy of further investigation....
The rest is down to interpretation of what you find when you take the trouble to look a little more closely....
That’s all from me for today....
I’ll be back tomorrow with more....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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