Thursday, 31st October 2019
Tomorrow, I’ll be sharing my contrarian picks for the weekend....
My primary focus will be on the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot....
We did a little spadework for that race yesterday. If you missed that, catch-up here....
Today, I want to mix it up. We will have a little look back and we will have a little look forward....
Hopefully, glances in both directions will deliver perspectives and observations that prove useful as we travel the road ahead....
I was happy to get a winner at a big price at Cheltenham last Saturday....
But these big handicap races deliver more than just winners. They also provide information that will be of use to us in the weeks and months ahead....
Not too many analysts are in the habit of putting up a horse that pulled-up in a race as one to follow in the its next few runs. But you get no prizes in this life for being anything less than bold and that’s what I’m doing this afternoon....
Conditions were nothing short of desperate on Saturday. The race time (more than half a minute in excess of the median for track and trip) tells you that much...
Several horses were pulled out of the race before the off. More than half the 15 starters were pulled-up ahead of time – exhausted and/or unable to act effectively on the stamina-sapping surface....
James Motherway’s Na Trachtalai Abu was one of those and he’s the one I’ll be taking out of the race and adding to the Watch List....
The 9yo is something of a late bloomer.
He’s already had 25 goes over fences (and an earlier career over hurdles) but each of his best five chase performances have been produced since August last year (during his last 9 runs)....
He’s gone up 20lbs over that period – but I reckon there is more to come from him yet....
I can’t imagine Motherway – who doesn’t make many forays into Britain – sent the horse across for a ride on the ferry....
Once he got here, the trainer was talking like a man with a horse he believed could get the job done....
On the day the horse went well enough early-on and mid-race. But he was pulled-up when tailed off. No matter. But for the rain-saturated ground, I suspect he would have put up a much more impressive display....
His day will come. Next time he’ll run off 135 – 3lbs less than his rating on Saturday. And he won’t always be on desperate ground....
He needs a good surface. That’s key. Connections expected that scenario on Saturday. They didn’t get it. But there will be a next time....
In case you missed it....Entries are now in for the big early-closing handicaps that will be run later this month – the BetVictor Gold Cup and the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham plus the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury.... We’ll be doing comprehensive pre-race spadework for each of these races – among other things, of course – over the next couple of weeks.... In the meantime, it does no harm to take an early look at who has put what in where and why. You might spot something interesting that the market hasn’t latched onto.... |
As I say, Ascot is the primary focus for me on Saturday....
It is early-doors for the jumps season and it is worth looking at the stats for pointers – to see which yards have the handy knack of targeting this meeting effectively....
One name stands out – Nicky Henderson....
In non-handicap events at the meeting, Henderson has taken some beating with his 15 runners over the last 11-year period producing 9 winners....
The temptation might be to focus on that specific group of runners. But the fact is that all but one of those winners were the race favourite (6 of them making their racecourse debut or having just their 2nd run) and profits are hard to come by even with that prodigious strike-rate....
Backing all those to win would have produced a total betting profit of 5.77 points – or 0.38 points per bets struck....
The better option is to focus your attention on the handicap events....
Henderson has saddled 31 handicappers at the meeting since 2008 – with 6 of them winning....
An additional 8 it the frame – producing a place strike rate of 45.1% – and the prices and returns are plenty better....
Backing all of Henderson’s handicappers on an each-way basis has produced a profit at the meeting of 19.5 points....
Betting this way across the last decade or so would not have produced life-changing money. But then how many bets and angles produce that in actuality?
And which of us seriously expects horse race betting to transform our financial landscape to that degree? Perhaps only those whose dreams and expectations are out of kilter with what reality can deliver....
This column can only report the facts as they are or as we see them. We cannot change the record to suit our aspirations or our desires....
The facts about Saturday’s meeting at Ascot are these....
Henderson has farmed the card across the last decade. His record of achievement dwarfs those of his competitors....
He’s enjoyed fantastic success at short prices in the non-handicap events....
And betting his runners each-way in the handicap races has produced a reasonable profit for punters over the period....
Of course, what has happened before is no guarantee that it will pan out the same way again. Henderson’s runners of yesteryear can’t help him on Saturday. He must do it all over again....
The historic statistical record is not an A+B+C+D+E winner-finding formula. The stats are merely a guide....
But as guides go, the dataset for Saturday’s Ascot card is largely compelling. Henderson has been the man to follow. If nothing else, his runners this time around merit close inspection....
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my usual contrarian take on the weekend’s biggest handicap races....
Until then. Stay tuned.
P.S. One more thing: Don’t forget that Racing TV have a cracking competition with loads of tickets to big race days up for grabs. Enter here....
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