Friday, 1st November 2019
The jumps season is still in its infancy....
There’s not much form in the book. Yards and horses are still building up to full steam. So, there are plenty of unknowns to deal with....
But it didn’t stop us getting one on the board at Cheltenham last week and there’s no reason to back off. If the coconut is there, we take aim and let loose at the best of the prices....
This week the coconut is the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot – a G3 contested over the right-handed 3-mile trip....
We had a look at some key pointers earlier in the week. A field of 18 goes to post on ground described as good to soft....
Vinndicated is two from two at the Berkshire track and steps up to 3-miles for the first time tomorrow....
He’s been staying on at the end of his races and I strongly suspect he will improve for the extra yardage....
The market concurs. He’s at the top of the ante-post betting this afternoon – available to back at prices no bigger than 5/1....
The race has come at the right time for trainer Kim Bailey. His yard is 3 wins from 10 runners over the last fortnight with almost everything giving a good account of itself. You can expect the jolly to be ready....
The horse has had a wind-op since last seen. He also he wears a first-time tongue-tie and he has the favoured man on his back in the shape of David Bass...
It has all the hallmarks of a carefully considered plan coming to the boil and he might well prove the right answer to the puzzle....
But I wouldn’t want to be backing that to be the case at the price. I want the one the market is overlooking and underestimating....
More on that shortly....
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here’s just some of what my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
Third time a charm? Go Conquer won this race in 2017 for Jonjo O’Neill off 142. Last year he was third for Nigel Twiston-Davies off 147. Can he hit the frame again? He’s 10-years-old now and it isn’t getting any easier for him off a rating of 155. Though he is only 4lb above his last winning mark. Expect him to be well to the fore early-doors. But will he stick it out under a big weight? That’s the question.
Fitness edge? Relentless Dreamer sneaks in at the bottom of the weights. Rebecca Curtis will be delighted about that. She’s an in-form trainer heading into the weekend with 3 winners from 8 runners over the last fortnight. And her 10-year-old is one of just three runners with a race under his belt in the last month. Whisper and Regal Encore are the other two. Will they have a fitness edge?
Connected – The inexperienced but entirely unexposed On The Blind Side will have to do it first-time-up at the track. But he’s got some history on his side. Nicky Henderson has a cracking record in the handicaps run at this early-season meeting. And no rider in tomorrow’s race can compare with Nico De Boinville’s 5-year-record at the track. If nothing else, the 7yo enjoys the right connections....
Is there Moore to come? Gary Moore knows too what type of horse it takes to win this race. He’s done it twice in the last three years with Antony in 2016 and Traffic Fluide last year. This year Larry flies the flag for the yard. His best effort in six chases to date came on his only attempt to date over 3-miles. That must be considered a good omen....
I want to be with Robert Walford’s WALK IN THE MILL at the generally available 25s....
Last time he was seen he was finishing 4th in the Grand National. Prior to that he’d won the Becher Chase over the same fences....
The Grand National will probably be his aim primary aim again this time around. He strikes as one of those horses that comes alive at Aintree....
But he has form at Ascot too. The good to soft ground won’t bother him tomorrow. Nor will the trip.
His fitness might be an issue if the big target is in April. But it’s not all about one race....
Traffic Fluide – winner of this race last year – was being aimed at the Grand National. There are other prizes to be contested before the spring....
Fitness will need to be taken on trust. But that’s the case with most of the field and this one does have the distinction of having won off a break on softish ground before....
I reckon he’s worth support at the big price. He’s certainly better than some of those around him in the betting. And I reckon he’s a bit better than a mark of 142 too....
The other one I want onside is Rebecca Curtis’s RELENTLESS DREAMER at 16s....
He’s only been seen once since winning a good handicap at last year’s November meeting at Cheltenham....
That performance came at Chepstow last month. He’s entitled to come on a bundle for that encouraging effort off a long break and on soft-ground off a mark of 137, I reckon he is a player if he’s on his game....
The horse has only been to Ascot once. He did nothing that day. But a lot of water has gone under the bridge since and he does handle going right-handed. So, I’m hopeful.
The bottom line is that there is enough in the price to lure me in....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Sodexo Gold Cup (3.20 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back on Monday afternoon with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
We’ll be having a crack at Tuesday morning’s Melbourne Cup down under at Flemington....
And a later in the week we’ll be looking back at what we learnt this weekend and looking ahead to next weekend’s action – with the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton up for a bit of spadework and analysis....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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