Monday, 4th November 2019
Ups and downs are the nature of the racing beast....
Sometimes, your horses do the business and all is well with the world. Other times they wake up sour and find a way to kick you in the teeth....
On Saturday, in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot, I took a belt to the old Shergars....
Relentless Dreamer hit the 7th fence like he was trying to uproot it. He wasn’t really going at the time. He didn’t go a yard afterwards and was pulled up....
My other selection, Walk In The Mill, didn’t even make it to the start. He went lame and was pulled out of the race well ahead of the off....
All that work. All that thinking. And not even a proper run for my money to show for it. Such is the life of a racing punter....
It hardly mattered.
It was the jolly Vinndicated – backed in from 9/2 on Friday to 2/1 on the day – who won it....
And he looked very good doing so of a 223-day break, in a first-time tongue-tie, first-time-up off a wind-op and off a mark of 151....
It was an especially good performance when you consider it was only his 5th run over fences, his first outside novice company, his first go in a handicap, his first go at the 3-mile trip and his first go in a proper big-field....
Let me put the performance into context in a way that I haven’t seen anybody do yet....
First off, not many horses with just four or fewer chase runs under their belt even attempt to win a G3 handicap at trips between 3m and 3m2f. Just 80 tried it over the last decade....
Second, not many of them win. Just eight have done so. With Kim Bailey’s horse becoming the latest of those on Saturday....
And here’s the kicker. None of those other seven inexperienced winners managed to score their qualifying win from such a lofty perch in the handicap....
Vinndication is the only such horse to win a G3 handicap case over 3m to 3m2f in the last decade from a mark in the 150s....
|
Date |
Horse |
OR |
|
10/03/2009 |
Wichita Lineman |
142 |
|
23/02/2013 |
Opening Batsman |
140 |
|
15/03/2016 |
Un Temps Pour Tout |
148 |
|
25/02/2017 |
Pilgrims Bay |
130 |
|
26/12/2017 |
Get On The Yager |
133 |
|
14/04/2018 |
Thomas Patrick |
139 |
|
06/04/2019 |
Kildisart |
148 |
|
02/11/2019 |
Vinndication |
151 |
He’s going to be a 160+ horse now and his immediate future will lie in the Graded conditions races....
Some folk are making a bit of mileage out of the fact that the horse has done almost all his work going right-handed....
But I’m ignoring that. He went okay at Cheltenham in March in the JLT – over a trip that was probably a touch inadequate even then....
The JLT is working out to be a very strong race indeed. And it is worth noting that but for a mistake Kim Bailey’s horse might have been a bit closer to Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation (an easy winner at Carlisle yesterday) than the 12-lengths he was beaten by on the day....
Vinndication might prove to be not quite as good as that pair. But they are potential superstars. And he isn’t miles behind them. He is a very good horse in his own right and he will prove better still....
The bottom line is this: it is way too early to write him off as a horse that absolutely needs to go right-handed. The evidence for that conclusion simply isn’t there yet....
There’s more to say about Saturday’s race yet. And I will say more as the week goes on....
But today I need to switch my focus back to the flat and tomorrow morning’s Melbourne Cup at Flemington where they go to post at 4.00am (our time) and where Aidan O’Brien and son Joseph (fresh from Breeders Cup success on Saturday night) saddle 7 of the 24 runners between them....
I’ve had my strategy for this race worked out for a while. I’m going to follow the Ebor form....
That’s been a competitive move in recent times with horses like Purple Moon, Heartbreak City and Wicklow Brave all going well in Australia after going well at York....
And I think we’re destined to see more such transference of form between the Ebor and the Melbourne Cup now that the Ebor offers more prize money and is now basically a handicap for Group horses (just like Melbourne Cup)....
Going forward, the British race is now set-up to be a long-range trial for the Australian job and that’s the way I’m going to be betting it....
MUSTAJEER and RAYMOND TUSK were first and third at York in August and I’ll be backing them both at the 20s available this morning....
Mustajeer has changed yards in the meantime. But I thought he ran a nice trial over an inadequate 12f in the Caulfield Cup last month that will put him spot-on. He’s nicely drawn in stall 6....
Raymond Tusk wasn’t drawn great at York but still ran an absolute cracker under Jamie Spencer who partners again tomorrow. The horse has had no trial run – something that will trend followers off. But the horse goes best fresh and in my book you must play the individual horse rather than the universal stats....
It’s a simple strategy but there’s nothing wrong with that. I’m on qualified horses at nice prices. Which is exactly where I want to be....
horse has only been to Ascot once. He did nothing that day. But a lot of water has gone under the bridge since and he does handle going right-handed. So, I’m hopeful.
The bottom line is that there is enough in the price to lure me in....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow morning…. In the Melbourne Cup (04.00 @ Flemington).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
Nick Pullen
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