Wednesday, 13th November 2019
This weekend the new jumps season really hots up with Cheltenham’s November meeting – starting on Friday and running through to Sunday....
There are several nice handicaps to target....
The feature events being the G3 BetVictor Gold Cup on Saturday and then G3 Greatwood Handicap Hurdle on Sunday....
But we may well find one or two more races to get involved with over the 3-day period. We will see....
I wouldn’t say trainers are entirely predictable. Every magician likes to develop his routine – adding new tricks and refining his stock show-stoppers....
But there are consistencies within the overall record that it pays punters to be mindful of....
Individual meetings act like punctuation marks across the season. And some trainers make a habit of targeting certain meetings above others – taking pains to ensure their horses are prepared to peak at that time of the season....
As part of my overall investigatory process, I like to try and identify such instances. It can prove informative – and useful from a betting perspective....
I’ve spent some time over the last couple of days poring over the stats. The aim is to identify trainers whose records suggest we can expect their horses to turn out fighting- fit and ready to fire this weekend....
Of course, what has happened in the past is no cast-iron guarantee that it will happen again in the future. But it is a useful guide. It is what we have available to work with...
And, if nothing else, we gain perspective that the larger part of the market (the people we are ultimately betting against) are heading into the weekend without....
A reminder about KISS angles....I wonder if we sometimes over-complicate the racing game…. Maybe there’s a case for going counter-intuitive and seeking to do better by thinking less…. It’s a line of approach I touch on from time to time…. We allow the stats to guide the way. We use them to highlight Keep-It-Simple-Stupid (KISS) strategies that have worked across time and which stand a strong chance of working again this time around…. |
Of course, a three-day meeting produces plenty of races and plenty of runners. And nobody wants to be wading into the market every time the starter raises his flag....
Better to focus on a few specific races. And at ATC, as you know, it is the handicaps that represent our primary focus....
The following table highlights the performance of the top men at the meeting over the last 6-years in handicap-specific events....
Win strike rates don’t mean much here. Nobody expects anybody to completely dominate the handicap sphere. And nobody does....
Place strike-rates in what are frequently big-field events are a much more significant indicator in my book – serving to draw attention to yards with a track record of sending out competitive horses.
Let’s not forget that a horse can run the race of its life in a big handicap – and still not win. And let’s also bear in mind that place returns at big prices keep the meter ticking over for value-seeking punters like us. Place strike rates in the handicap sphere are important....
The figures above highlight Bailey, Fry, O’Brien, Hobbs and Nicholls as the men with the best place strike rates and the better win/run ratios over the most recent period....
Philip Hobbs and Paul Nicholls are the guys who have produced consistent figures off a greater volume of runners....
Both those yards are in decent form with their handicappers as we start the week....
Over the last 14 days Nicholls is 3 winners from 17 runners in the handicap – that’s a win strike rate of 17.6%. But the market isn’t unaware and profits are slim. Had you backed all those runners you’d now be sitting on a surplus of 4 points....
That’s the trouble with Nicholls. His handicappers can be a little over-bet. I wouldn’t put anybody off scrutinizing the Nicholls handicappers and attempting to sort the wheat from the chaff. It’s a worthwhile exercise. A dozen years-worth of evidence tells you that much....
But as a mechanical KISS-angle, I prefer Philip Hobbs in the handicaps this weekend....
I recently highlighted the Hobbs yard as one with the potential to bounce back this term from a poor performance in top handicaps last term – you can revisit that opinion here....
Nothing we’ve seen so far this term has encouraged me to change my mind. And Hobbs heads into the Cheltenham weekend in reasonable form with his handicappers. The last 23 have produced five wins at 21.7%....
Most importantly, and in contrast with Paul Nicholls, the Hobbs handicappers fly a little lower on the market radar and as such can be backed at bigger prices – handy if you like the insurance policy represented by betting each-way in the competitive big handicaps....
Hobbs has a record of producing horses for the handicap chases and the handicap hurdles run at the event – so don’t discriminate....
And whilst Richard Johnson is – as you’d expect – the principal rider to note, don’t be afraid of backing other riders on Hobbs horses....
Ciaran Gethings, Michael Nolan, James Best, Tom O'Brien have all been on handicappers that got competitive at the meeting over the last few years. Nolan, Gethings and Best were all claiming off their mounts....
And don’t be afraid to back horses that are making their seasonal debut. Eight of the last 13 horses to win or place for the yard in a handicap at the meeting were having their first start for more than 200 days. Hobbs can get them straight for a first-time-up tilt at this meeting....
If you don’t want to back all the Hobbs horses in handicaps and you are looking to discriminate, consider doing so on experience....
Ten of the last thirteen handicappers to win or place at the meeting had raced 8 times or fewer over whichever type of obstacle they were racing over....
In other words, the more experienced veterans running out of the yard haven’t done quite so well....
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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