Thursday, 14th November 2019
Weight is key in handicap races and, of course, weight carried in such races is based on the official rating of the individual horse....
The official handicapper can rate a horse wrong in one of two ways....
One. He can over-estimate its potential and its true level of ability and give a horse a mark that is higher than is merited....
Two. He can under-estimate a horse and give it a mark that underplays its true potential and ability....
Getting it right is the usual mix of science, art, quackery, alchemy and blind luck....
And the official handicapper is not infallible. He can get it wrong too. And he frequently does. As a contrarian race-analyst and punter, I rely on it....
As a handicap punter I am always in search of horses from either group. The first group – so that I might oppose them. The second group – so that I might back them at a price....
Today, I bring you news of a horse from that second group....
First time up is generally considered the best time to catch Harry Fry’s Just A Sting....
He won at the first time of asking at Uttoxeter last term. The season before that – when still campaigning over hurdles – he produced a 2nd-place finish at Exeter on his seasonal debut....
So, it was no surprise the 7yo attracted money for his reappearance at Wincanton in the Badger Beers Silver Trophy on Saturday. He was backed into co-favouritism and sent off at 5s....
Whilst the other co-favourite – Give Me A Copper – justified market support by winning the race, Fry’s charge could only finish 4th of the 13 that went to post and the nine that managed to complete the course....
But he was only beaten 7.25 lengths over the 3m1f trip. This despite meeting one the 3rd last fence wrong and being unable to regather the same momentum afterwards....
All in all, it was a solid seasonal debut. And there will be more to come....
Just A Sting is well worth adding to our Watch List. He will be vising the winners’ enclosure not so very far further down the line. I’m pretty much certain of that....
On Saturday, Just A Sting raced off a rating of 134. He was neither put up or dropped for Saturday’s defeat. Next time he goes to post over fences he will race off that exact same mark....
It is a mark 6lbs below his career-peak over fences to date and a mark just 3lbs in advance of his last winning mark in a chase....
For my money, 134 is a mark that renders this horse well-handicapped on his best form....
Furthermore, it is a mark that a young chaser with just half-a-dozen fencing assignments under his belt is likely to step forward from in short order –
Especially as he runs for a trainer who is building his own growing reputation on squeezing maximum juice from every orange in his possession....
And especially because a rating of 134 enables Harry Fry to lower the horse’s sights a little compared to Saturday – if he so wishes....
Exactly when Just A Sting registers the win I anticipate will depend as much as anything on the weather and the ground....
This horse needs a decent surface to do his best work. He can handle a little cut. But he certainly wouldn’t want it like I expect it to be this weekend....
It may be that a little patience is required. We might have to wait for a conjunction of the planets....
In the meantime, a couple of additional points to note....
First, Saturday’s performance was the first produced by the horse in cheekpieces. It will be interesting to see if they are retained....
Second, the 7yo’s best three chase performances have now been produced going right-handed. But apply caution here....
It is too early to conclude whether this is a feature of the horse that we can rely on. After all, he’s only had six goes in total over fences and he has won going left (albeit at class 3 level). But it is something worth monitoring at as the horse progresses....
Only 7-runners go to post for tomorrow’s BetVictor Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (1.50)....
I’d normally leave a small field like that alone. But I can’t resist having a swing at ARDERA CROSS at a double-figure price....
The 8yo who used to be with Dan Skelton takes a lot of racing. He’s now with William Young Jnr, he’s been on the go across the summer and he’s stepping up markedly in class....
But last time when winning at Ayr he produced a clear career-best and he’s of definite interest tomorrow against several horses still growing into the season....
The soft ground won’t be a bother. And I think he’ll handle heavy better than most....
He’s certainly race-fit. That’s an issue at 2-miles and I reckon he could prove more competitive on the day than his price suggests....
He’s up at 12s with Coral and BetVictor & 11s with Ladbrokes....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the BetVictor Handicap Chase (1.50 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today....
I’ll be back tomorrow when I’ll be having a crack at Saturday’s headline race – the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham....
We did a little spadework on this race on Tuesday. If you missed that, you can catch-up here....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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