Friday, 15th November 2019
Before we get started on tomorrow’s racing....
The Cheltenham November meeting runs into Sunday and the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle is of definite interest as far as things stand....
I’m not covering that race today. I’m going to hang on and deal with that tomorrow....
So, in a diversion from the norm, look out for me in your inbox tomorrow afternoon....
It’s been a funny day – studying the horses in races not certain to be run....
But from what I’m hearing from my man on the track, I reckon the waters will have receded sufficiently for the inspection at 3pm this afternoon to pass the track fit to stand racing tomorrow afternoon....
That’s the good news. The bad news is that the BetVictor Smartcards Handicap Chase (1.50) has cut-up to just 7-runners and I’m going to bypass that as a betting contest....
After two pull-outs (including 159-rated Saint Calvados who won at the track in October) we’re left with an 18-runner BetVictor Gold Cup (2.25)....
We’ll get to my thoughts on that race in a moment or two....
Racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here’s some of what my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
Weight and ground – the floodwaters have receded at the track but there is a little more rain to come and conditions will be testing. Four of the horses at the top of the market in the BetVictor Gold Cup are among the five burdened with 11-00 and more. That weight is something that might just go against them in the closing stages of the race....
Lack of match sharpness – is something else that could be a telling factor tomorrow. Eight of the 18 runners show-up without a seasonal run under the belt. At least some of those horses will likely be vulnerable to horses that have already blown the cobwebs away in a competitive race....
Back for more – Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Splash Of Ginge won this race in 2017 on soft ground off a mark of 134. He’s rated 130 tomorrow and is 3lb out of the handicap. That weight issue is a bit of a negative but he’ll like the underfoot conditions more than most and 25s is not a bad each-way price. But he really will have to be a different horse than the one that showed up at Wetherby last time....
Track advantage? Splash Of Ginge has won three times at the track from 16 goes and clearly likes the place. And that’s an important consideration. The other multiple winners – Slate House (3/6) and Siruh Du Lac (2/3) – are right at the top of the betting. Will track form prove the key advantage tomorrow?
The KISS-angle horse – Philip Hobbs is the man for the handicaps at this meeting. We based our KISS-angle on his record. He saddles Springtown Lake in the BetVictor Gold Cup with Richard Johnson booked for the ride. The pair have won 11 races at this meeting in tandem across the last 5-years. That’s a better record than any other pairing can boast. If the 7yo is going to prevail tomorrow he will need to improve markedly on his performances at the track to date (albeit two of the were over hurdles)....
Kerry Lee’s HAPPY DIVA was still travelling very well in last season’s BetVictor Gold Cup (2.25) when brought down at the 4th last and she gets a crack at gaining compensation tomorrow....
She’s up at 14s, 16s & 18s with various firms this afternoon and those are prices worth taking about a horse that likes Cheltenham....
She’s run a couple of decent races over fences at the track – the pick of those was a runner-up spot behind Aso in a handicap chase on New Year’s day....
That one – trained by Venetia Williams – has gone 1up the ratings scale to the tune of 10lbs since then and looked a proper G1 animal when touched-off by Frodon in the Ryanair Chase just 10-weeks later at the Festival....
These things don’t work like algebraic formulas. You can extrapolate too much from collateral form lines. But to be beaten just 2-lengths by a quality horse like that was a good bit of form and I reckon she’s under-rated by the market for tomorrow’s contest at the price....
She ran off 140 in this race last year. She goes off 143 this time (having gone up a pound in defeat at Wetherby last time) with the same 3lb claimer on her back. I don’t believe she is rated or weighted out of this....
She won’t mind the cut in the ground. And she turns up match-sharp – unlike a few of these. She got beaten at Wetherby last month but she ran her race, she will come on for it and she is better off at the weights with Guitar Pete (the horse that beat her) tomorrow....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the BetVictor Gold Cup (2.25 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my thoughts on Sunday’s Greatwood Handicap Hurdle....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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