Saturday, 16th November 2019
Monsieur Lecoq looked like a grade horse in the making when winning a decent handicap at Ffos Las last month....
The bookies fancy him to back that performance up in tomorrow’s Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (3.00)....
The 5yo – whose record over hurdles reads 2 wins from 3 goes – is up at 4s this morning. Fergal O’Brien’s Benny’s Bridge is considered his principal challenger by the market makers. They have that one in at 6s....
After that, the truth is they don’t know. They haven’t got the foggiest....
That’s not a criticism by the way. It’s just a simple statement of fact. And it is reflected in the numbers....
After the front two, the next eight in the betting all trade at prices between 10s and 12s....
A cautious punter might leave such a race alone and condemn it as ‘too competitive’....
I get it. But most of these big handicaps are competitive. More competitive than the prices suggest at least....
And if the competitive nature of such races is going to put you off wading into the market then you had probably best leave handicaps alone and stick to the conditions races where flat-track bullies are easier to find....
For me, tomorrow’s Greatwood is all about figuring out which of the horses up this morning at 10s and 12s might look big in hindsight....
The one I certainly will not take at 10s is Nicky Henderson’s Dame De Compagnie who has been off the track for 577-days. It would be hell of a training performance to win this off a break of that length....
Of course, Henderson is high-quality and capable of both winning with the horse and making me look like mug of the month in the process....
But that is by the by. Scratching the horse is not a comment on either animal or trainer – just a response to price. Can this long-term absentee from the action really be shorter than Gumball who won a good race at Ascot last week in good style and is clearly fit and firing at a high level?
The race will prove me right or wrong. And I don’t much care either way....
My focus is on finding a contender at a wrong price and the one I’ve settled on is the Philip Hobbs trained ZANZA at this morning’s general 10s....
Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson team up on the horse. No trainer/jockey combination has a better record at this meeting over the last 5-years....
That is a plus. But it is not the primary reason behind the bet. That boils down fitness and advantage....
The horse proved he is fit and firing when winning at Newbury earlier this month. He produced a career-best effort that day and you can be sure he will have plenty more to offer yet....
The advantage is at the weights. He’s due to go up to a mark of 140 but races off 136 tomorrow – which entitles him to carry a nice racing weight of 10-13. It all helps....
The thing that clinches it for me is last season’s Betfair Hurdle at Ascot. The horse finished 13th of 14 that day after pulling too hard early doors. But Hobbs had genuinely fancied the horse for that race off a mark of 135....
They put a hood on him afterwards, to help remedy the pulling. He had it on at Newbury last time. But they’ve been working hard on him at home in the close season and they’re not using the headgear tomorrow....
It suggests the hard work has paid off and they think the horse can settle without the headgear....
If that’s the case, then a horse fancied at home for last season’s Betfair Hurdle in his first season in training off 135 is surely a contender tomorrow off 136 with the problems he had then now taken care of?
We will see. But I reckon the general 10s is a nice enough price in the context of this specific race....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (3.00 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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